Louisville Cardinals

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at S Indiana · Sun 8 Nov, 4 PM ET

Louisville96%4%S Indiana

Projected 79-56 · Game page

Makes the tournament98%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.7

Wins the national title2%Final Four 14% · projected 29-5

Net rating+35.9Rank 7 of 363 · offence 12, defence 7

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 29-5 (25 to 33 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 48%
Wins the conference tournament: 33%
Average seed if in the field: 3.7
A 1 seed: 7%

Makes the field98%
Round of 3292%
Sweet 1667%
Elite Eight33%
Final Four14%
Title game6%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Bellarminerank 344	Home	100%	110-53	W 119-47	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Stetsonrank 248	Home	100%	92-50	W 87-35	Right
Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET	at Southern Indianarank 109	Away	96%	79-56	—
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	vs Lindenwoodrank 244	Home	100%	88-45	—
Thu 12 Nov8 PM ET	at Ball Staterank 87	Away	94%	84-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 7% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at Southern IndianaA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at Ball StateA win: 7% · a loss: 7%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tajianna RobertsG	2	23.0	14.5	2.0	3.0	+8.2	+4.4
Carys BakerF · transfer from Virginia Tech	2	21.0	6.5	6.0	2.5	+7.9	+3.9
Zamareya JonesG · transfer from NC State	2	21.0	11.0	4.5	6.5	+8.2	+4.0
Deniya PrawlG · transfer from Tennessee	2	19.0	6.0	4.5	1.0	+6.6	+3.1
Ariyana CradleG	2	17.5	10.5	4.0	1.0	+1.0	+1.0
Imari BerryG	2	17.0	15.0	2.5	2.0	+11.2	+4.2
Reagan BenderG	2	16.5	4.0	2.0	0.5	+7.1	+2.8
Ayse Melek DemirerF	2	16.0	2.0	4.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.9
Amiya JoynerF · transfer from LSU	2	14.5	11.5	9.0	1.0	+12.2	+3.9
Grace MbuguaF	2	12.0	9.5	4.5	0.5	+7.5	+2.1
Rebekah GravesG	2	10.0	5.5	1.0	0.0	+5.4	+1.4
Elif IstanbulluogluF	1	13.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+10.1	+3.0
Mackenly RandolphF	1	12.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	+10.7	+2.9

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.6%rank 14	41.4%rank 8	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.9%rank 14	28.0%rank 5	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.8%rank 61	32.9%rank 126	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.1%rank 245	20.9%rank 226	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.7 points a game (they shot 12.5%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.6
Last season's net rating: +38.1
Last season's minutes returning: 57%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +15.8
Change since preseason: +0.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 111.3 (rank 12)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 75.4 (rank 7)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.2 (rank 71)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.0 (rank 261)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.9	111.3	75.4	7
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	74.9	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.5	81.9	17
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.4	107.6	79.2	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+23.0	103.6	80.6	30
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.5	103.6	81.1	32
8	Virginia	2-0	0-0	+19.7	103.0	83.3	38
9	Miami	2-0	0-0	+17.9	103.8	85.9	45
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.8	98.8	83.0	55
11	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.4	100.3	85.9	63
12	Clemson	2-0	0-0	+14.3	101.0	86.7	64
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.2	100.4	88.2	69
14	Georgia Tech	2-0	0-0	+11.4	97.1	85.7	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+3.0	89.2	86.2	113
16	Wake Forest	2-0	0-0	+0.6	92.0	91.5	136
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.8	91.2	93.0	158
18	Boston College	0-2	0-0	−6.0	90.0	96.0	194