Stetson Hatters
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-18
Net rating−11.6Rank 249 of 363 · offence 280, defence 223
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-18 (9 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Flaglernot Division I | Home | — | — | W 75-52 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Louisvillerank 8 | Away | 0% | 50-92 | L 35-87 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | at Miamirank 40 | Away | 1% | 51-81 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Florida Internationalrank 271 | Away | 39% | 63-67 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: at MiamiA win: 5% · a loss: 6%−1 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Florida InternationalA win: 6% · a loss: 6%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie LocatelliG | 2 | 31.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | −3.8 | −1.0 |
| Desireck NievesG | 2 | 27.5 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Candela Garcia-Escribano PozoF | 2 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Jorah EppleyG | 2 | 24.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Favour Nmecha AnyaeleF | 2 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Addison GodbyG | 2 | 20.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Cici DriessenG | 2 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Zoie LoftonG | 2 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
| Sofia MoschenF · transfer from Bowling Green | 2 | 9.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Raven LeXanderF | 2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Kieren SmithF | 2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Heidi RathmannG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 42.5%rank 348 | 45.1%rank 249 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.4%rank 339 | 24.5%rank 73 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.4%rank 292 | 34.6%rank 293 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.5%rank 277 | 21.1%rank 272 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.9 points a game (they shot 29.6%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.1
- Last season's net rating
- −2.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −2.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 83.1 (rank 280)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 94.8 (rank 223)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 213)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +35.8 (rank 6)
Atlantic Sun Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Gulf Coast | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 89.6 | 89.0 | 137 |
| 2 | Jacksonville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 89.5 | 90.1 | 146 |
| 3 | North Florida | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 87.4 | 96.6 | 223 |
| 4 | Lipscomb | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 85.1 | 96.6 | 246 |
| 5 | Stetson | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.6 | 83.1 | 94.8 | 249 |
| 6 | West Florida | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.4 | 84.2 | 100.6 | 296 |
| 7 | Queens University | 0-2 | 0-0 | −19.2 | 76.7 | 96.0 | 318 |
| 8 | Bellarmine | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.3 | 79.8 | 104.0 | 343 |