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Updated Thu 5 Nov, 9:50 PM ET

Scores, schedules and lines from ESPN; past seasons from sportsdataverse. Not affiliated with any team, league or bookmaker.

Jacksonville Dolphins

Women's · Atlantic Sun Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Makes the tournament42%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-8
Net rating+0.4Rank 141 of 363 · offence 132, defence 150

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons
Projected record
21-8 (17 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record
12-2
Wins or shares the conference title
53%
Wins the conference tournament
41%
Average seed if in the field
14.3
A 1 seed
0%
  1. Makes the field42%
  2. Round of 32<1%
  3. Sweet 16<1%
  4. Elite Eight0%
  5. Final Four0%
  6. Title game0%
  7. Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game
DateOpponentWhereWin chanceProjectedResultPick
Tue 3 Novat Florida Internationalrank 266Away45%69-71W 75-64Wrong
Thu 5 Novat Miamirank 45Away5%59-81L 63-79Right
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ETat Coastal Carolinarank 114Away30%66-73—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 42% · the next 7 days
  1. Wed 11 Nov: at Coastal CarolinaA win: 42% · a loss: 42%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement
PlayerGamesMinutesPointsReboundsAssistsRatingValue
Tatum BrownG235.57.52.51.5+2.3+3.0
Samirah MamoudouF235.518.08.50.5−1.0+0.8
J'Niya WeaverG228.015.57.00.0−0.9+0.7
Coco RudolphG225.59.51.50.5−1.1+0.5
Mariyah BrownF224.02.05.01.5−1.0+0.5
Aniah SmithG222.012.51.52.0+1.4+1.5
Mychal WhiteG210.02.01.00.0+1.5+0.7
Geren HawthorneF29.50.50.51.5−0.3+0.3
A'Yiana FlemingsF · transfer from McNeese26.00.51.50.0+0.5+0.3
Taylor BluntG23.01.01.00.0+0.1+0.1
Kimora HesterG11.00.00.00.0−0.90.0
McKenzie LewisG11.00.00.00.0+0.3+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

OffenceDefenceLeague
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin44.9%rank 13146.9%rank 34044.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin23.4%rank 11227.0%rank 923.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin36.2%rank 1233.3%rank 21033.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin24.9%rank 620.8%rank 15220.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances
1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
Opponents' three-point shooting
−6.7 points a game (they shot 40.5%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws
+0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team
−6−4−20+21 NovNow+0.4−6−4−20+21 NovNow+0.4
Preseason net rating
−4.9
Last season's net rating
+2.1
Last season's minutes returning
39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes
0.0
Change since preseason
+5.4
Offence, points per 100 possessions
91.9 (rank 132)
Defence, points allowed per 100
91.5 (rank 150)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
75.5 (rank 16)
Schedule so far, opponents' average
+2.5 (rank 114)

Atlantic Sun Conference by rating

8 teams
#TeamRecordConferenceNetOffenceDefenceNational rank
1Florida Gulf Coast0-10-0+0.589.589.0139
2Jacksonville1-10-0+0.491.991.5141
3North Florida0-10-0−9.487.196.4228
4Stetson1-10-0−11.783.094.7248
5Lipscomb0-20-0−16.483.299.6299
6Queens University0-20-0−18.976.895.7320
7West Florida0-20-0−20.183.8103.8329
8Bellarmine1-10-0−24.379.7104.0344