Miami Hurricanes

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Jacksonville · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Jacksonville5%95%Miami

Projected 81-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament42%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 22-12

Net rating+18.9Rank 40 of 363 · offence 44, defence 47

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (17 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field42%
Round of 3222%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Florida Atlanticrank 218	Home	97%	94-67	W 75-48	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Jacksonvillerank 145	Home	95%	81-59	Live
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Stetsonrank 249	Home	99%	81-51	—
Thu 12 Nov7 PM ET	vs Saint Peter'srank 350	Home	100%	86-44	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 42% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs JacksonvilleA win: 42% · a loss: 40%+2 pts
Sun 8 Nov: vs StetsonA win: 42% · a loss: 42%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Gal RavivG	1	33.0	11.0	5.0	4.0	+4.2	+3.8
Amarachi KimpsonG	1	31.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+4.5	+3.8
Ahnay AdamsG	1	28.0	21.0	8.0	3.0	+4.8	+3.6
Gianna CorbittF · transfer from Chattanooga	1	24.0	4.0	10.0	4.0	+6.0	+3.6
Dayana MendesG · transfer from USC	1	18.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	+4.8	+2.3
Jess-Mine ZodiaC	1	17.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.6
Natalie WetzelF	1	16.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	+4.1	+1.8
Soma OkoloF	1	12.0	11.0	1.0	1.0	+4.7	+1.5
Anna LiepinaF	1	11.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.4
Maja UrankerG	1	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.3
Mya HermanG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.5%rank 68	44.0%rank 101	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.3%rank 267	24.6%rank 65	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.2%rank 97	33.0%rank 112	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.0%rank 237	20.0%rank 127	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.0 points a game (they shot 23.1%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.5
Last season's net rating: +18.0
Last season's minutes returning: 59%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.3
Change since preseason: +0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.1 (rank 44)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 83.2 (rank 47)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.2 (rank 168)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −8.5 (rank 184)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.1	75.3	7
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.4	108.2	74.8	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.3	81.7	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.4	78.0	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.2	107.3	79.1	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.8	103.3	80.5	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.3	80.9	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.1	83.2	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	101.0	84.1	49
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.6	82.9	54
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.4	84.8	55
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.0	85.7	63
13	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.5	85.3	71
14	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.1	100.2	88.1	72
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.2	86.6	114
16	Wake Forest	2-0	0-0	+0.4	91.8	91.4	139
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	90.9	92.9	157
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−5.8	89.2	94.9	190