Florida Atlantic Owls
Next: vs Kennesaw St · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 68-60 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-20
Net rating−8.6Rank 217 of 363 · offence 240, defence 197
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-20 (5 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Miamirank 40 | Away | 3% | 67-94 | L 48-75 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs Kennesaw Staterank 254 | Home | 71% | 68-60 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov1 PM ET | vs South Alabamarank 220 | Home | 65% | 70-64 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Kennesaw StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs South AlabamaA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyla TuthillG | 1 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Mani PiljevicG | 1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Madi GewirtzG | 1 | 22.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Erin RodgersG | 1 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jaelynn HouseyG | 1 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Juju LerouxG | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Mia JordanF · transfer from N Kentucky | 1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Grace CarstensenG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| Keke ButlerG | 1 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Jazzy GipsonG · transfer from SMU | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −3.6 | −0.3 |
| Vivian OnughaF | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +0.6 |
| Zahira ArizmendiG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.1%rank 266 | 45.6%rank 295 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.6%rank 299 | 24.2%rank 98 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.1%rank 258 | 34.3%rank 274 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.0%rank 242 | 20.0%rank 123 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.3 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.1
- Last season's net rating
- −9.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 58%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.5
- Change since preseason
- −0.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.9 (rank 240)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.5 (rank 197)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.4 (rank 156)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +18.9 (rank 37)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.6 | 94.9 | 82.3 | 69 |
| 2 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.5 | 99.4 | 88.9 | 75 |
| 3 | UTSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 90.8 | 86.6 | 104 |
| 4 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.7 | 90.3 | 87.5 | 115 |
| 5 | North Texas | 1-1 | 0-0 | +2.2 | 91.9 | 89.6 | 119 |
| 6 | Temple | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.3 | 93.4 | 92.1 | 129 |
| 7 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 88.0 | 90.2 | 167 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 88.5 | 91.3 | 169 |
| 9 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 87.2 | 92.1 | 189 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 89.3 | 94.6 | 191 |
| 11 | UAB | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.4 | 95.7 | 212 |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 84.9 | 93.5 | 217 |
| 13 | Wichita State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 78.4 | 92.5 | 279 |