Tulane Green Wave
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-10
Net rating+2.7Rank 115 of 363 · offence 152, defence 86
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-10 (15 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Texas Southernrank 363 | Home | 95% | 90-66 | W 92-38 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | vs Alabamarank 33 | Home | 19% | 62-74 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs LSU New Orleansrank 358 | Home | 100% | 86-51 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs AlabamaA win: 14% · a loss: 11%+3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khadee HessionPG · transfer from Georgetown | 1 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| Jayda BrownG | 1 | 27.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +0.2 | +1.2 |
| Kanija DanielG | 1 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +2.2 | +1.7 |
| Ja'Kyah SmithG | 1 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Asha SraG · transfer from Charleston So | 1 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Madison GordonF | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Edina StrauszF · transfer from Davidson | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.5 | +1.9 |
| Aizhanique MayoG · transfer from DePaul | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.4 |
| Kennedy SimpsonG | 1 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Nataliyah GrayF · transfer from Mississippi St | 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +2.1 | +1.1 |
| Makayla CarterF · transfer from Nevada | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.8%rank 126 | 42.0%rank 10 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.6%rank 48 | 24.4%rank 78 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.2%rank 253 | 32.5%rank 75 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.9%rank 100 | 20.7%rank 251 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +7.2 points a game (they shot 15.8%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.2
- Last season's net rating
- −1.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 32%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.1
- Change since preseason
- +6.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 90.3 (rank 152)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 87.5 (rank 86)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.6 (rank 135)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −33.0 (rank 268)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.6 | 94.9 | 82.3 | 69 |
| 2 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.5 | 99.4 | 88.9 | 75 |
| 3 | UTSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 90.8 | 86.6 | 104 |
| 4 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.7 | 90.3 | 87.5 | 115 |
| 5 | North Texas | 1-1 | 0-0 | +2.2 | 91.9 | 89.6 | 119 |
| 6 | Temple | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.3 | 93.4 | 92.1 | 129 |
| 7 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 88.0 | 90.2 | 167 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 88.5 | 91.3 | 169 |
| 9 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 87.2 | 92.1 | 189 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 89.3 | 94.6 | 191 |
| 11 | UAB | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.4 | 95.7 | 212 |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 84.9 | 93.5 | 217 |
| 13 | Wichita State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 78.4 | 92.5 | 279 |