North Texas Mean Green
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14
Net rating+2.2Rank 119 of 363 · offence 129, defence 116
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-14 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 7%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Newmannot Division I | Home | — | — | W 101-48 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | at San Diego Staterank 54 | Away | 14% | 60-75 | L 57-73 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Dukerank 12 | Neutral | 2% | 55-81 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov12 PM ET | vs Houston Christianrank 306 | Home | 95% | 73-51 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs DukeA win: 12% · a loss: 8%+4 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Houston ChristianA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherie SpencerG | 2 | 26.5 | 16.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +1.3 |
| Chania PriceG | 2 | 25.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| KaMyra BarberG | 2 | 23.5 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Otaifo EsenabhaluF · transfer from Longwood | 2 | 23.0 | 5.5 | 13.5 | 1.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 |
| Kalysta MartinG · transfer from Texas Tech | 2 | 20.5 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 | +1.6 |
| Taylor RietveldF | 2 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Kendall MosleyG · transfer from San Diego St | 2 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | +1.2 | +0.9 |
| Kyndal GrahamG | 2 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Allison RickmanF | 2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.4 | +0.3 |
| Reza PoG · transfer from East Texas A&M | 2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| Shelby ThorntonF | 2 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Arianna JohnsonF | 2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
| Bralyah MillerG | 2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.6%rank 298 | 44.4%rank 111 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.8%rank 51 | 23.4%rank 261 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.7%rank 125 | 30.8%rank 11 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 23.8%rank 9 | 23.7%rank 351 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.9%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +3.1
- Last season's net rating
- +9.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 23%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.3
- Change since preseason
- −0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 91.9 (rank 129)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 89.6 (rank 116)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.0 (rank 102)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +15.5 (rank 51)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.6 | 94.9 | 82.3 | 69 |
| 2 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.5 | 99.4 | 88.9 | 75 |
| 3 | UTSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 90.8 | 86.6 | 104 |
| 4 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.7 | 90.3 | 87.5 | 115 |
| 5 | North Texas | 1-1 | 0-0 | +2.2 | 91.9 | 89.6 | 119 |
| 6 | Temple | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.3 | 93.4 | 92.1 | 129 |
| 7 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 88.0 | 90.2 | 167 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 88.5 | 91.3 | 169 |
| 9 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 87.2 | 92.1 | 189 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.2 | 89.3 | 94.6 | 191 |
| 11 | UAB | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.4 | 95.7 | 212 |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.6 | 84.9 | 93.5 | 217 |
| 13 | Wichita State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 78.4 | 92.5 | 279 |