San Diego State Aztecs

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs UTSA · Sun 8 Nov, 4 PM ET

UTSA16%84%San Diego St

Projected 72-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament52%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 27-7

Net rating+15.4Rank 56 of 363 · offence 50, defence 62

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-7 (22 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 43%
Wins the conference tournament: 34%
Average seed if in the field: 10.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field52%
Round of 3214%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Cal State Fullertonrank 240	Home	95%	92-69	W 77-51	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs North Texasrank 119	Home	86%	75-60	W 73-57	Right
Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET	vs UTSArank 104	Home	84%	72-57	—
Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET	vs Coloradorank 35	Home	51%	66-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 52% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs UTSAA win: 52% · a loss: 50%+1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs ColoradoA win: 54% · a loss: 49%+6 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Natalia MartinezG	2	28.0	15.0	1.5	2.0	+3.6	+2.9
Nayli PadillaG · transfer from New Mexico	2	26.0	5.5	6.0	2.0	+3.2	+2.5
Bailey BarnhardF	2	24.5	6.5	9.0	2.0	+5.2	+3.2
Eva DeChentG · transfer from New Hampshire	2	21.5	9.0	0.0	1.0	+4.2	+2.5
Dionne MadjoF	2	19.5	12.5	5.5	0.0	+0.6	+1.0
Alyssa JacksonG	2	18.0	3.0	1.5	2.0	+3.0	+1.7
Kennedy LeeF	2	17.0	4.5	5.5	0.5	+5.6	+2.4
Alayna KrausG · transfer from S Illinois	2	17.0	7.0	0.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.9
Izzy NavarroG	1	20.0	5.0	7.0	5.0	+0.9	+1.1
Mayenabasi AkpanF	2	7.0	7.0	1.5	1.0	+1.0	+0.4
Maria KonstantinidouF	2	6.0	1.0	1.5	0.5	+2.8	+0.5
Mairead HeartyF	1	8.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.5
Ellie ChenG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+2.2	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 103	42.4%rank 15	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.3%rank 35	21.1%rank 361	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.1%rank 361	30.8%rank 11	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.0%rank 248	25.1%rank 362	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +2.1 points a game (they shot 25.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +12.5
Last season's net rating: +13.4
Last season's minutes returning: 66%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.8
Change since preseason: +2.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.2 (rank 50)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.7 (rank 62)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 306)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.4 (rank 160)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+18.0	102.6	84.6	42
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.4	101.2	85.7	56
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	92.5	85.5	93
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.8	95.8	91.0	102
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.6	92.4	91.8	135
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	91.0	92.5	155
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.9	86.6	94.5	210
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	85.2	94.3	222
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	83.2	97.6	283