Washington State Cougars

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Oregon · Fri 6 Nov, 10 PM ET

Washington St1%99%Oregon

Projected 54-84 · Game page

Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating+0.6Rank 134 of 363 · offence 123, defence 155

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 12.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field3%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Californiarank 32	Away	4%	69-93	L 58-80	Right
Fri 6 Nov10 PM ET	at Oregonrank 20	Away	1%	54-84	—
Mon 9 Nov2 PM ET	vs Idahorank 107	Home	56%	70-68	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 3% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at OregonA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs IdahoA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Eleonora VillaG	1	35.0	20.0	3.0	7.0	+1.9	+2.6
Mackenzie ChatfieldG	1	27.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	−0.3	+0.9
Charlotte AbrahamG	1	25.0	0.0	6.0	0.0	+1.5	+1.7
Malia RuudF	1	24.0	13.0	7.0	0.0	+1.0	+1.4
Elizaveta FilchaginaF · transfer from SMU	1	19.0	7.0	3.0	4.0	−2.5	−0.1
Tanja ValancicF	1	18.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.3
Aicha BahG	1	17.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−0.6	+0.5
Alex CovillC	1	16.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	+1.5	+1.1
Malvina HaziriG	1	16.0	6.0	1.0	2.0	−2.4	−0.1
Tahara MagassaF	1	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1
Reese JordanG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.5%rank 230	44.5%rank 126	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.4%rank 2	22.5%rank 332	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.7%rank 353	31.2%rank 26	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.1%rank 350	21.2%rank 277	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.9 points a game (they shot 42.1%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −3.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −0.3
Last season's net rating: −6.1
Last season's minutes returning: 76%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.1
Change since preseason: +1.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.3 (rank 123)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.7 (rank 155)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 177)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +22.4 (rank 31)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+18.0	102.4	84.5	43
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.4	101.0	85.6	57
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+7.0	92.3	85.3	93
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.8	95.7	90.9	101
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.6	92.3	91.7	134
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	90.8	92.3	154
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.9	86.4	94.3	211
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	85.0	94.1	224
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	83.0	97.5	283