Oregon State Beavers

Women's · Pac-12 Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs E Washington · Sun 8 Nov, 5 PM ET

E Washington26%74%Oregon St

Projected 73-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16

Net rating+4.8Rank 101 of 363 · offence 93, defence 137

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (10 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 6%
Average seed if in the field: 11.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field8%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs California Baptistrank 151	Home	88%	76-60	L 77-79	Wrong
Sun 8 Nov5 PM ET	vs Eastern Washingtonrank 137	Home	74%	73-64	—
Wed 11 Nov9 PM ET	vs Northwest Nazarenenot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 8% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Eastern WashingtonA win: 8% · a loss: 9%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kennedie ShulerG	1	36.0	10.0	5.0	7.0	+4.1	+4.1
Taylor YoungG	1	36.0	22.0	2.0	2.0	−1.7	+0.3
Lara Alonso-BasurtoF	1	32.0	7.0	11.0	2.0	+1.9	+2.3
Jenna VillaG	1	28.0	21.0	7.0	2.0	+3.9	+3.0
Katelyn FieldG	1	24.0	3.0	5.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.6
Ashley UusitaloG	1	20.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.3
Maggie WarpusF	1	8.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.2
Evelini SmithF	1	8.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	−1.0	+0.2
Keira LindemansG	1	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.3
Mackenzie ShiversG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 84	45.7%rank 303	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.3%rank 272	20.8%rank 363	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.7%rank 351	33.6%rank 233	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.8%rank 55	18.5%rank 32	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.9 expected (−0.9)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.0 points a game (they shot 34.6%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +5.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.3
Last season's net rating: +11.1
Last season's minutes returning: 63%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −3.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 95.6 (rank 93)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.8 (rank 137)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 297)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.3 (rank 134)

Pac-12 Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Gonzaga	1-0	0-0	+17.9	102.3	84.4	43
2	San Diego State	2-0	0-0	+15.4	100.9	85.5	57
3	Colorado State	1-0	0-0	+6.9	92.2	85.2	93
4	Oregon State	0-1	0-0	+4.8	95.6	90.8	101
5	Washington State	0-1	0-0	+0.7	92.2	91.6	134
6	Boise State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	90.7	92.2	153
7	Texas State	1-0	0-0	−7.9	86.3	94.2	211
8	Fresno State	1-0	0-0	−9.1	84.9	94.0	224
9	Utah State	1-0	0-0	−14.5	82.9	97.3	283