California Baptist Lancers
Makes the tournament12%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.1
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating−1.3Rank 151 of 363 · offence 121, defence 202
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (16 to 29 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 15-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 12%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 11%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.1
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field12%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | at Oregon Staterank 101 | Away | 12% | 60-76 | W 79-77 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov8 PM ET | at Utah Techrank 325 | Away | 79% | 75-64 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at Utah TechA win: 12% · a loss: 12%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe BriggsG · transfer from Washington | 1 | 39.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | +1.8 | +2.9 |
| Lauren OlsenG | 1 | 38.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +1.4 | +2.5 |
| Sofia AlonsoG | 1 | 36.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | −2.4 | −0.2 |
| Josie AgnewG | 1 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| McKinley WillardsonF | 1 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Reyleigh HessF | 1 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Spela BreceljF · transfer from Virginia Tech | 1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | +1.5 | +1.2 |
| Sienna GriegerG · transfer from Santa Clara | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.7%rank 57 | 45.2%rank 268 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 20.8%rank 1 | 24.3%rank 95 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.6%rank 132 | 30.7%rank 16 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.5%rank 332 | 21.8%rank 306 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.9 points a game (they shot 21.4%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −4.8
- Last season's net rating
- +5.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 29%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.4
- Change since preseason
- +3.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 92.2 (rank 121)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.5 (rank 202)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.3 (rank 25)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +4.8 (rank 93)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.6 | 88.6 | 96 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.5 | 90.4 | 86.9 | 110 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.5 | 91.7 | 142 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 92.2 | 93.5 | 151 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 87.6 | 91.8 | 185 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 83.9 | 92.3 | 215 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.3 | 95.3 | 242 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.4 | 95.1 | 250 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.2 | 96.8 | 299 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.1 | 98.5 | 314 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.7 | 99.3 | 325 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 76.9 | 99.1 | 338 |