UC Irvine Anteaters
Makes the tournament37%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 28-7
Net rating+6.0Rank 96 of 363 · offence 98, defence 99
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 28-7 (21 to 33 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 18-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 48%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 35%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field37%
- Round of 322%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov10 PM ET | at UCLArank 11 | Away | 2% | 52-81 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | at Northern Arizonarank 223 | Away | 72% | 72-64 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at UCLAA win: 41% · a loss: 37%+4 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Northern ArizonaA win: 37% · a loss: 36%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.6%rank 139 | 44.6%rank 134 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 151 | 23.9%rank 128 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 140 | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.4%rank 137 | 20.4%rank 144 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +6.0
- Last season's net rating
- +11.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 58%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.8
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 94.7 (rank 98)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 88.7 (rank 99)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.9 (rank 298)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.7 | 88.7 | 96 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.5 | 90.5 | 87.0 | 110 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.6 | 91.8 | 142 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 92.3 | 93.6 | 151 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.2 | 87.7 | 91.9 | 186 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.0 | 92.4 | 215 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.4 | 95.4 | 241 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.5 | 95.2 | 252 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.3 | 96.9 | 299 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.2 | 98.5 | 313 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.8 | 99.5 | 325 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 77.0 | 99.2 | 338 |