Sacramento State Hornets
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13
Net rating−4.3Rank 184 of 363 · offence 193, defence 162
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 21-13 (15 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 5%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at UT Arlingtonrank 284 | Away | 44% | 63-66 | W 67-61 | Wrong |
| Sat 7 Nov9 PM ET | at Nevadarank 259 | Away | 56% | 65-63 | — | |
| Mon 9 Nov9:30 PM ET | vs Cal State East Baynot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET | at Buffalorank 255 | Away | 56% | 68-66 | — |
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie PictonG | 1 | 39.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −0.1 | +1.4 |
| Koko AkridgeG · transfer from Long Island | 1 | 37.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Elizabeth AbiaraF | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| Jelena SavicG · transfer from Evansville | 1 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Alexis HessF · transfer from Kansas St | 1 | 22.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| Tali Fa'iG | 1 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.3 |
| Jenessa CottonF · transfer from Kansas St | 1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.7 | +1.0 |
| Achol MagotC · transfer from Arizona | 1 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 |
| Ajong LualC | 1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.8 | +0.1 |
| Jordan BarlowG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.7%rank 62 | 43.0%rank 30 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.6%rank 302 | 24.2%rank 95 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.3%rank 44 | 33.8%rank 239 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 24.5%rank 5 | 20.7%rank 252 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.3 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.9
- Last season's net rating
- −4.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 44%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.0
- Change since preseason
- +3.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.7 (rank 193)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.0 (rank 162)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.1 (rank 297)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −14.6 (rank 215)
Big West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 0-0 | +6.0 | 94.8 | 88.8 | 96 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-1 | 0-0 | +3.5 | 90.5 | 87.1 | 110 |
| 3 | UC Santa Barbara | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.2 | 91.7 | 91.9 | 144 |
| 4 | California Baptist | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.3 | 92.4 | 93.7 | 153 |
| 5 | Sacramento State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 87.7 | 92.0 | 184 |
| 6 | Utah Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 84.1 | 92.5 | 214 |
| 7 | Cal State Fullerton | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.5 | 95.5 | 240 |
| 8 | UC Riverside | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.7 | 83.6 | 95.3 | 250 |
| 9 | Cal State Northridge | 1-0 | 0-0 | −16.7 | 80.4 | 97.0 | 300 |
| 10 | Cal Poly | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.3 | 80.3 | 98.7 | 313 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.9 | 99.6 | 324 |
| 12 | Cal State Bakersfield | 1-0 | 0-0 | −22.2 | 77.1 | 99.3 | 339 |