Nevada Wolf Pack
Next: vs Sacramento St · Sat 7 Nov, 9 PM ETProjected 63-65 · Game page
Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-22
Net rating−12.3Rank 259 of 363 · offence 242, defence 282
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-22 (6 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 2%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field2%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Loyola Marymountrank 98 | Away | 20% | 72-83 | L 64-89 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov9 PM ET | vs Sacramento Staterank 184 | Home | 44% | 63-65 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | vs Jessupnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Sacramento StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahaila HarrisonG | 1 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.6 |
| Sierra ChambersG · transfer from Southern Utah | 1 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Aili TankeG · transfer from Iowa State | 1 | 25.0 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 |
| Alexis SwillisC · transfer from UNLV | 1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Olivia PoulivaatiF | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | −0.3 |
| Izzy SullivanG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Delaney ArredondoG | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | −3.1 | −0.2 |
| Amelia RaidavetaF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Hanna JolinderG | 1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | −0.2 |
| Imbie JonesF | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.3 | −0.2 |
| Taua PulokaG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Britain BackusPG | 1 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.1 |
| Kendra HicksF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.7%rank 62 | 46.7%rank 340 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.1%rank 324 | 23.9%rank 121 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.3%rank 43 | 33.6%rank 235 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.4%rank 70 | 21.7%rank 307 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.4 points a game (they shot 31.2%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.8
- Last season's net rating
- −7.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 50%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.5
- Change since preseason
- −4.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.8 (rank 242)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 97.2 (rank 282)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.5 (rank 262)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +5.6 (rank 89)
Mountain West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 96.6 | 94.8 | 122 |
| 2 | Grand Canyon | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.9 | 91.8 | 91.0 | 133 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 0-2 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 91.4 | 91.3 | 143 |
| 4 | Air Force | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 88.4 | 89.4 | 151 |
| 5 | UC Davis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 89.3 | 92.3 | 175 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.6 | 87.6 | 95.2 | 207 |
| 7 | Nevada | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 84.8 | 97.2 | 259 |
| 8 | Wyoming | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 82.3 | 96.5 | 282 |
| 9 | UTEP | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 83.5 | 98.1 | 285 |
| 10 | San José State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.8 | 78.9 | 95.7 | 301 |