UNLV Lady Rebels
Makes the tournament24%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating+1.8Rank 122 of 363 · offence 83, defence 228
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (13 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-5
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 32%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 24%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field24%
- Round of 321%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs USCrank 15 | Neutral | 9% | 71-90 | L 68-100 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov9:30 PM ET | vs UTSArank 104 | Home | 58% | 68-66 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9:30 PM ET | vs Arizona Staterank 34 | Home | 18% | 65-77 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs UTSAA win: 24% · a loss: 24%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Arizona StateA win: 24% · a loss: 24%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmyn LottG | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +1.8 |
| Norah MooF · transfer from Grand Canyon | 1 | 27.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
| Jayla ConstantG | 1 | 25.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Trystan JamesF | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −0.7 | +0.6 |
| Meadow RolandF | 1 | 23.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +4.4 | +2.8 |
| Bergan KinnebrewG | 1 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Marley WashenitzG · transfer from Arizona St | 1 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.3 | +1.7 |
| Maia RosarionG · transfer from Nevada | 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | +1.6 | +0.8 |
| Keonni LewisG | 1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Terri'A RussellF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
| Arianna DavisF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
| Tristan WilliamsG | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.0%rank 275 | 48.3%rank 361 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.1%rank 322 | 23.3%rank 272 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 36.4%rank 10 | 34.9%rank 307 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.6%rank 61 | 20.0%rank 119 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −5.2 points a game (they shot 36.4%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +5.6
- Last season's net rating
- +11.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 33%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +2.9
- Change since preseason
- −3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.6 (rank 83)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 94.9 (rank 228)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 196)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +31.5 (rank 13)
Mountain West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 96.6 | 94.9 | 122 |
| 2 | Grand Canyon | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.9 | 91.9 | 91.0 | 132 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 0-2 | 0-0 | +0.2 | 91.5 | 91.3 | 142 |
| 4 | Air Force | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 88.5 | 89.5 | 150 |
| 5 | UC Davis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 89.4 | 92.4 | 175 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.6 | 87.7 | 95.3 | 207 |
| 7 | Nevada | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 84.9 | 97.2 | 258 |
| 8 | Wyoming | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 82.4 | 96.6 | 282 |
| 9 | UTEP | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 83.6 | 98.2 | 285 |
| 10 | San José State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.8 | 79.0 | 95.8 | 301 |