San José State Spartans

Women's · Mountain West Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Oklahoma · Tue 10 Nov, 7 PM ET

San José St0%100%Oklahoma

Projected 45-98 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-23

Net rating−16.7Rank 300 of 363 · offence 323, defence 249

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 8-23 (3 to 14 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Nebraskarank 30	Away	0%	61-103	L 54-81	Right
Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET	at Oklahomarank 9	Away	0%	45-98	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Adlee BlacklockG · transfer from Texas Tech	1	33.0	5.0	7.0	0.0	+0.8	+1.8
Erika MaceG	1	31.0	20.0	1.0	3.0	−4.0	−1.1
Sydnie RodriguezG · transfer from Seattle U	1	29.0	15.0	4.0	1.0	−6.8	−2.5
Cristina Sanchez CerqueiraF · transfer from Arkansas	1	24.0	5.0	8.0	1.0	−2.7	−0.3
Eve BlagroveG	1	23.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−3.9	−0.8
Kayla LorenzG · transfer from UT Rio Grande	1	21.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.3
Maleyni TolliverF	1	20.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−3.9	−0.6
Gabriela PatoF	1	10.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	−2.9	−0.1
Natalija GrizeljG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.3	−0.1
Amelie SitterudG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−6.3	−0.2
Carla FusterG	1	3.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	−6.2	−0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.3%rank 78	44.0%rank 106	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	26.3%rank 351	23.4%rank 269	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.4%rank 328	34.0%rank 255	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.7%rank 61	19.6%rank 99	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.6 points a game (they shot 24.1%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −18.3
Last season's net rating: −21.0
Last season's minutes returning: 25%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −1.8
Change since preseason: +1.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 78.8 (rank 323)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.5 (rank 249)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.7 (rank 49)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +23.2 (rank 30)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNLV	0-1	0-0	+1.8	96.4	94.6	123
2	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+0.8	91.6	90.8	132
3	Hawai'i	0-2	0-0	+0.2	91.3	91.1	140
4	Air Force	1-0	0-0	−1.0	88.2	89.2	149
5	UC Davis	1-0	0-0	−3.0	89.1	92.1	173
6	New Mexico	0-1	0-0	−7.7	87.4	95.0	208
7	Nevada	0-1	0-0	−12.3	84.7	97.0	256
8	Wyoming	0-1	0-0	−14.3	82.1	96.4	282
9	UTEP	1-0	0-0	−14.7	83.3	97.9	285
10	San José State	0-1	0-0	−16.7	78.8	95.5	300