Air Force Falcons
Next: vs Saint Mary's · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ETProjected 68-55 · Game page
Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-12
Net rating−1.0Rank 151 of 363 · offence 183, defence 111
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-12 (14 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 19%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 16%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field17%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Denverrank 260 | Home | 78% | 82-71 | W 66-45 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | vs Saint Mary'srank 243 | Home | 84% | 68-55 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | vs San Franciscorank 123 | Home | 58% | 68-66 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Saint Mary'sA win: 17% · a loss: 17%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs San FranciscoA win: 17% · a loss: 17%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayda McNabbG | 1 | 38.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 3.0 | +2.9 | +3.5 |
| Jordyn DeVaughnG | 1 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | −1.2 | +0.6 |
| Alexis CortezG | 1 | 32.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.6 |
| Keelie O'HollarenG | 1 | 29.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +1.3 |
| Eva LoveG | 1 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.3 |
| AJ ManneringG | 1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Marissa HargraveG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Julia LeachF | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Chloe ParkerG | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 |
| Maddy JensenG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Carson FayardG | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.5%rank 306 | 43.4%rank 54 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 121 | 23.7%rank 231 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.3%rank 248 | 32.1%rank 54 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.8%rank 318 | 21.9%rank 313 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +7.2 points a game (they shot 8.3%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.3
- Last season's net rating
- −5.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 59%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +2.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 88.4 (rank 183)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 89.4 (rank 111)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.3 (rank 278)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −12.4 (rank 196)
Mountain West Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNLV | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 96.6 | 94.8 | 122 |
| 2 | Grand Canyon | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.9 | 91.8 | 91.0 | 133 |
| 3 | Hawai'i | 0-2 | 0-0 | +0.1 | 91.4 | 91.3 | 143 |
| 4 | Air Force | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.0 | 88.4 | 89.4 | 151 |
| 5 | UC Davis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 89.3 | 92.3 | 175 |
| 6 | New Mexico | 0-1 | 0-0 | −7.6 | 87.6 | 95.2 | 207 |
| 7 | Nevada | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 84.8 | 97.2 | 259 |
| 8 | Wyoming | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 82.3 | 96.5 | 282 |
| 9 | UTEP | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 83.5 | 98.1 | 285 |
| 10 | San José State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.8 | 78.9 | 95.7 | 301 |