Saint Mary's Gaels

Women's · West Coast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Air Force · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

Saint Mary's16%84%Air Force

Projected 54-68 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22

Net rating−11.4Rank 245 of 363 · offence 276, defence 221

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 11-22 (6 to 16 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	at Stanfordrank 62	Away	12%	58-75	L 54-87	Right
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	at Air Forcerank 149	Away	16%	54-68	—
Tue 10 Nov10 PM ET	vs Chico Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at Air ForceA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Abigail ShoffF	1	28.0	4.0	7.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.9
Charlece OhiaeriG	1	27.0	1.0	6.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.4
Lucy AherneF	1	26.0	13.0	0.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.3
Lihi AzouriG · transfer from SE Louisiana	1	24.0	14.0	2.0	1.0	−4.4	−1.0
Niveya HenleyG · transfer from Idaho	1	23.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Evelyn TounkaraF	1	23.0	11.0	2.0	1.0	−2.6	−0.2
Nina KlepG	1	15.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
NaTallia UrlacherG	1	14.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	−3.1	−0.2
Audrey BhesaniaG	1	13.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−2.4	−0.1
Ave OdegardF	1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Agata WlazF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.5%rank 71	46.6%rank 338	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.1%rank 312	23.4%rank 271	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.2%rank 333	32.8%rank 98	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.7%rank 323	19.3%rank 78	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.6 points a game (they shot 35.3%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −4.8
Last season's net rating: −0.9
Last season's minutes returning: 41%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.9
Change since preseason: −6.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.1 (rank 276)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.5 (rank 221)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.4 (rank 329)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +14.3 (rank 60)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Santa Clara	1-0	0-0	+16.4	102.7	86.2	51
2	Portland	1-0	0-0	+8.3	95.0	86.7	87
3	Loyola Marymount	1-0	0-0	+5.5	97.0	91.4	98
4	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+1.7	93.0	91.3	124
5	Pepperdine	1-0	0-0	+1.2	89.8	88.6	130
6	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−3.2	89.7	92.9	177
7	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−8.4	84.6	93.0	216
8	Saint Mary's	0-1	0-0	−11.4	83.1	94.5	245
9	Denver	1-1	0-0	−12.3	83.6	95.9	261
10	Seattle U	1-0	0-0	−20.2	80.0	100.2	332