San Diego Toreros
Next: vs UC San Diego · Sat 7 Nov, 6 PM ETProjected 59-69 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19
Net rating−8.5Rank 217 of 363 · offence 241, defence 187
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-19 (9 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at New Mexico Staterank 307 | Away | 54% | 77-75 | W 61-56 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET | vs UC San Diegorank 108 | Neutral | 22% | 59-69 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | vs Portland Staterank 327 | Home | 86% | 70-56 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs UC San DiegoA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs Portland StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylie RayG | 1 | 37.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Kiera PembertonF · transfer from Baylor | 1 | 32.0 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | +1.5 | +2.1 |
| Olivia OwensG | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Sammie WagnerG · transfer from Oregon | 1 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +1.0 |
| Eva RuseF | 1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.5 |
| Lilly AmorG | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −5.2 | −1.2 |
| Jessica AjayiG | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.8 | −0.7 |
| Braelynn BarnettF · transfer from Georgetown | 1 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Ayla WilliamsF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
| Lauren McCallG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.4%rank 224 | 43.2%rank 50 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.4%rank 114 | 25.1%rank 52 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 136 | 32.3%rank 93 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 22.4%rank 50 | 21.9%rank 289 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.0 points a game (they shot 14.3%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.4
- Last season's net rating
- −12.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 59%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.4
- Change since preseason
- +0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.7 (rank 241)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.2 (rank 187)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.6 (rank 226)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −17.2 (rank 257)
West Coast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +16.4 | 102.8 | 86.4 | 52 |
| 2 | Portland | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.3 | 95.1 | 86.8 | 86 |
| 3 | Loyola Marymount | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 97.1 | 91.5 | 95 |
| 4 | San Francisco | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 93.2 | 91.4 | 122 |
| 5 | Pepperdine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.1 | 89.9 | 88.8 | 131 |
| 6 | Pacific | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 89.8 | 93.0 | 177 |
| 7 | San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 84.7 | 93.2 | 217 |
| 8 | Saint Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 83.2 | 94.7 | 246 |
| 9 | Denver | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 83.7 | 96.1 | 259 |
| 10 | Seattle U | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.3 | 80.0 | 100.4 | 330 |