Pacific Tigers

Women's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Washington · Thu 5 Nov, 10 PM ET

Pacific2%98%Washington

Projected 52-82 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17

Net rating−3.2Rank 177 of 363 · offence 163, defence 181

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-17 (10 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 12.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Simpson (CA)not Division I	Home	—	—	W 105-42
Thu 5 Nov10 PM ET	at Washingtonrank 24	Away	2%	52-82	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at WashingtonA win: 6% · a loss: 4%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Victoria RiveraG · transfer from Georgetown	1	26.0	17.0	6.0	3.0	+2.1	+2.0
Sophia MindermannG	1	24.0	22.0	1.0	3.0	−0.5	+0.7
Jordyn DyerG	1	22.0	3.0	4.0	6.0	−1.5	+0.3
JoJo NworieC · transfer from Colorado	1	18.0	13.0	4.0	4.0	+2.4	+1.5
Yana KaramfilovaF	1	18.0	15.0	4.0	4.0	−1.3	+0.3
LaMiracle LebonF	1	18.0	2.0	8.0	2.0	−2.3	0.0
Liv YergensenG	1	16.0	9.0	3.0	4.0	−2.9	−0.2
Bella BurcarG	1	14.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.2
Stella SzaboG	1	13.0	6.0	5.0	6.0	−1.9	+0.1
Marina RadocajF	1	11.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.3
Payton MontgomeryF	1	11.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	−1.2	+0.2
Mia JamiasG	1	5.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.1
Sofia LocatiG	1	4.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.2
Last season's net rating: −5.2
Last season's minutes returning: 56%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.8 (rank 163)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 93.0 (rank 181)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 179)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Santa Clara	1-0	0-0	+16.4	102.8	86.4	52
2	Portland	1-0	0-0	+8.3	95.1	86.8	86
3	Loyola Marymount	1-0	0-0	+5.6	97.1	91.5	95
4	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+1.8	93.2	91.4	122
5	Pepperdine	1-0	0-0	+1.1	89.9	88.8	131
6	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−3.2	89.8	93.0	177
7	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−8.5	84.7	93.2	217
8	Saint Mary's	0-1	0-0	−11.5	83.2	94.7	246
9	Denver	1-1	0-0	−12.4	83.7	96.1	259
10	Seattle U	1-0	0-0	−20.3	80.0	100.4	330