San Francisco Dons
Next: vs California · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 61-79 · Game page
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14
Net rating+1.7Rank 124 of 363 · offence 115, defence 147
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 6%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Hawai'irank 142 | Home | 61% | 67-63 | W 85-79 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Californiarank 32 | Neutral | 9% | 61-79 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | at Air Forcerank 150 | Away | 42% | 66-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs CaliforniaA win: 11% · a loss: 7%+4 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Air ForceA win: 8% · a loss: 7%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aina CargolG | 1 | 41.0 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | +0.2 | +1.8 |
| Candy EdokpaigbeG | 1 | 37.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +3.7 | +4.1 |
| Maria BurligaG | 1 | 32.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.7 |
| Savi MiG | 1 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | −0.9 | +0.6 |
| Noelia MourinoF | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | +1.2 | +1.5 |
| Keiryn McGuffG · transfer from Akron | 1 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 |
| Jayda QueeleyG · transfer from Pitt | 1 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.2 |
| Lucia YenesF · transfer from New Mexico St | 1 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Natasa TausovaF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.4 | +0.5 |
| Emilie BeggsG | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.2 |
| Ines BabayaG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.4%rank 311 | 46.0%rank 311 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.4%rank 103 | 23.1%rank 296 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.8%rank 117 | 33.2%rank 114 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.9%rank 256 | 20.9%rank 264 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +0.2
- Last season's net rating
- +0.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 60%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −5.3
- Change since preseason
- +1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 93.2 (rank 115)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 91.5 (rank 147)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.3 (rank 25)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +0.2 (rank 123)
West Coast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +16.4 | 102.8 | 86.4 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.3 | 95.2 | 86.9 | 87 |
| 3 | Loyola Marymount | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.5 | 97.1 | 91.6 | 98 |
| 4 | San Francisco | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 93.2 | 91.5 | 124 |
| 5 | Pepperdine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.2 | 89.9 | 88.8 | 130 |
| 6 | Pacific | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 89.9 | 93.1 | 180 |
| 7 | San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.4 | 84.8 | 93.2 | 215 |
| 8 | Saint Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.4 | 83.2 | 94.7 | 243 |
| 9 | Denver | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 83.7 | 96.1 | 261 |
| 10 | Seattle U | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.3 | 80.1 | 100.4 | 329 |