Pepperdine Waves
Next: vs Santa Barbara · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ETProjected 68-62 · Game page
Makes the tournament6%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-13
Net rating+1.2Rank 130 of 363 · offence 157, defence 98
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-13 (14 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 4%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 5%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.9
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field6%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Portland Staterank 327 | Away | 74% | 86-76 | W 59-43 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET | vs UC Santa Barbararank 144 | Home | 66% | 68-62 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | vs Cal State Dominguez Hillsnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs UC Santa BarbaraA win: 7% · a loss: 6%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie MendelsonC · transfer from Penn State | 1 | 31.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +0.9 |
| Elli GuineyG | 1 | 30.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | +2.9 | +2.8 |
| Seleh HarmonG | 1 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 |
| Taija Sta. MariaG | 1 | 27.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +1.2 |
| Lina FalkG | 1 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +1.8 | +1.8 |
| Zoe ShanahanF | 1 | 20.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Keandra KooritsG · transfer from Washington St | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +0.5 |
| Ilinca BeleganteG | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Evelyn MartynC | 1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 |
| Freya BijkerkG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
| Landrie CallahanF | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.0%rank 113 | 40.0%rank 1 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 143 | 22.9%rank 305 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.7%rank 26 | 32.3%rank 66 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 111 | 19.1%rank 60 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.1 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.4
- Last season's net rating
- +3.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 56%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.2
- Change since preseason
- +2.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.8 (rank 157)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 88.7 (rank 98)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.4 (rank 156)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −19.9 (rank 246)
West Coast Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara | 1-0 | 0-0 | +16.4 | 102.7 | 86.3 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.3 | 95.1 | 86.8 | 87 |
| 3 | Loyola Marymount | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.6 | 97.1 | 91.5 | 98 |
| 4 | San Francisco | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 93.1 | 91.4 | 123 |
| 5 | Pepperdine | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.2 | 89.8 | 88.7 | 130 |
| 6 | Pacific | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 89.8 | 93.0 | 180 |
| 7 | San Diego | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 84.7 | 93.2 | 215 |
| 8 | Saint Mary's | 0-1 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 83.2 | 94.6 | 243 |
| 9 | Denver | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 83.7 | 96.0 | 260 |
| 10 | Seattle U | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.3 | 80.0 | 100.3 | 329 |