Santa Clara Broncos

Women's · West Coast Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Utah Valley · Sat 7 Nov, 6 PM ET

Santa Clara89%11%Utah Valley

Projected 78-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament66%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 28-6

Net rating+16.4Rank 52 of 363 · offence 44, defence 69

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-6 (24 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 72%
Wins the conference tournament: 53%
Average seed if in the field: 10.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field66%
Round of 3217%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Wyomingrank 280	Away	83%	87-74	W 84-50	Right
Sat 7 Nov6 PM ET	at Utah Valleyrank 215	Away	89%	78-61	—
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	at Long Beach Staterank 325	Away	97%	84-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 66% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at Utah ValleyA win: 66% · a loss: 65%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at Long Beach StateA win: 66% · a loss: 62%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kylee FoxG	1	24.0	12.0	4.0	1.0	+3.0	+2.4
Ava SchmidtF	1	23.0	13.0	4.0	3.0	+5.2	+3.2
Delainey MillerG	1	22.0	5.0	4.0	1.0	+3.6	+2.4
Sophie GlanceyF	1	21.0	15.0	9.0	1.0	+6.6	+3.5
Maia JonesG	1	21.0	14.0	6.0	2.0	+5.7	+3.1
Aniya HookerG	1	21.0	9.0	2.0	3.0	+1.8	+1.6
Emma NajjumaC · transfer from New Mexico	1	21.0	5.0	11.0	0.0	+3.7	+2.3
Kate SchatG	1	21.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	+0.7	+1.1
Sara SchmerbachG	1	14.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.5
Brooke BlachlyG	1	12.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.9%rank 9	42.2%rank 19	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.2%rank 28	23.9%rank 207	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.5%rank 74	30.1%rank 12	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.8%rank 269	21.1%rank 239	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.9 points a game (they shot 30.8%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.3
Last season's net rating: +12.7
Last season's minutes returning: 82%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.3
Change since preseason: +5.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.8 (rank 44)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.4 (rank 69)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.3 (rank 26)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.2 (rank 240)

West Coast Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Santa Clara	1-0	0-0	+16.4	102.8	86.4	52
2	Portland	1-0	0-0	+8.3	95.1	86.8	86
3	Loyola Marymount	1-0	0-0	+5.6	97.1	91.5	95
4	San Francisco	1-0	0-0	+1.8	93.2	91.4	122
5	Pepperdine	1-0	0-0	+1.1	89.9	88.8	131
6	Pacific	1-0	0-0	−3.2	89.8	93.0	177
7	San Diego	1-0	0-0	−8.5	84.7	93.2	217
8	Saint Mary's	0-1	0-0	−11.5	83.2	94.7	246
9	Denver	1-1	0-0	−12.4	83.7	96.1	259
10	Seattle U	1-0	0-0	−20.3	80.0	100.4	330