Wyoming Cowgirls

Women's · Mountain West Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Missouri St · Sat 7 Nov, 9 PM ET

Missouri St89%11%Wyoming

Projected 55-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 9-23

Net rating−14.2Rank 280 of 363 · offence 284, defence 270

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 9-23 (4 to 14 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Santa Clararank 52	Home	17%	74-87	L 50-84	Right
Sat 7 Nov9 PM ET	vs Missouri Staterank 72	Home	11%	55-71	—
Tue 10 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs UT Arlingtonrank 223	Home	51%	65-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Missouri StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Tue 10 Nov: vs UT ArlingtonA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Norah ClarkF · transfer from UT Martin	1	27.0	16.0	7.0	1.0	−3.0	−0.4
Liv BlomkvistC	1	25.0	6.0	2.0	2.0	−2.8	−0.3
Ophelia PowellG · transfer from Bakersfield	1	24.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	−5.2	−1.3
Taylor DonaldsonG	1	24.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−2.0	+0.1
Kati OllilainenG	1	22.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	−2.0	+0.1
Jersey BergG	1	22.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	−2.0	+0.1
Katie HarringtonG	1	15.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−3.7	−0.4
Zoey BlackwellG	1	11.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Peyton WohlfordF	1	10.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.3
Merceius MiliF · transfer from Utah Tech	1	7.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	−3.2	−0.1
Karly DavisG	1	7.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1
Hayley JohnsonF	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.2%rank 348	47.9%rank 359	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 160	22.2%rank 338	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.1%rank 358	34.5%rank 288	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.1%rank 121	19.8%rank 97	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −12.9 points a game (they shot 44.4%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −9.1
Last season's net rating: −8.9
Last season's minutes returning: 26%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.1
Change since preseason: −5.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 82.4 (rank 284)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.6 (rank 270)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.1 (rank 342)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +16.4 (rank 56)

Mountain West Conference by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	UNLV	0-1	0-0	+1.8	96.6	94.8	124
2	Grand Canyon	1-0	0-0	+0.9	91.9	91.0	132
3	Hawai'i	0-2	0-0	0.0	91.4	91.4	144
4	Air Force	1-0	0-0	−0.9	88.5	89.4	147
5	UC Davis	1-0	0-0	−3.0	89.3	92.3	172
6	New Mexico	0-1	0-0	−7.5	87.7	95.2	208
7	Nevada	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.8	97.2	257
8	Wyoming	0-1	0-0	−14.2	82.4	96.6	280
9	UTEP	1-0	0-0	−14.7	83.5	98.2	286
10	San José State	0-1	0-0	−16.9	78.9	95.8	302