Missouri State Lady Bears

Women's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Wyoming · Sat 7 Nov, 9 PM ET

Missouri St89%11%Wyoming

Projected 71-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament50%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 28-7

Net rating+10.9Rank 72 of 363 · offence 92, defence 54

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-7 (23 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 57%
Wins the conference tournament: 44%
Average seed if in the field: 12.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field50%
Round of 325%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Southeast Missouri Staterank 336	Home	96%	91-66	W 77-40	Right
Sat 7 Nov9 PM ET	at Wyomingrank 282	Away	89%	71-55	—
Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET	at Wichita Staterank 279	Away	89%	70-54	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 50% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at WyomingA win: 50% · a loss: 48%+1 pts
Tue 10 Nov: at Wichita StateA win: 50% · a loss: 48%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Hannah LinthacumF	1	22.0	6.0	7.0	0.0	0.0	+0.9
Landon ForbesG · transfer from Morehead St	1	22.0	2.0	4.0	1.0	+1.9	+1.6
Lainie DouglasF	1	21.0	15.0	7.0	2.0	+7.1	+3.5
Kaemyn BekemeierG	1	20.0	11.0	4.0	2.0	+5.4	+2.8
Macie MaysG	1	19.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.8
Maiesha WashingtonF	1	18.0	8.0	3.0	0.0	+3.5	+1.9
Antil SnoddyG	1	16.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	+0.2	+0.7
Nevaeh LuciousF	1	16.0	9.0	5.0	2.0	+0.2	+0.7
JaNyla BushG	1	15.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.7
Kendal BrueggenG	1	12.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	+3.1	+1.2
Audrey HopkinsG	1	8.0	5.0	1.0	2.0	+1.6	+0.6
Chloe HoweG	1	5.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.2
Blake O'GradyF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.1%rank 267	43.3%rank 50	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.7%rank 135	23.5%rank 243	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.0%rank 107	31.6%rank 39	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.2%rank 38	20.2%rank 128	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.1 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.2
Last season's net rating: +5.2
Last season's minutes returning: 66%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.8
Change since preseason: +4.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 95.9 (rank 92)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 85.0 (rank 54)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.4 (rank 155)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −21.9 (rank 251)

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	+10.9	95.9	85.0	72
2	Liberty	1-0	0-0	+8.8	98.1	89.3	85
3	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+2.8	93.9	91.2	113
4	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−7.7	86.3	94.0	209
5	Sam Houston	1-0	0-0	−10.4	82.4	92.8	233
6	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.7	95.2	246
7	Kennesaw State	2-0	0-0	−12.1	82.5	94.5	254
8	Florida International	0-1	0-0	−13.2	82.3	95.5	271
9	Delaware	0-1	0-0	−17.0	83.9	100.9	302
10	New Mexico State	0-1	0-0	−17.3	79.9	97.2	304