Western Kentucky Lady Toppers

Women's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Christian Brothers · Sun 8 Nov, 3 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15

Net rating−7.7Rank 209 of 363 · offence 225, defence 203

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-15 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 14.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs Chattanoogarank 241	Home	57%	64-62	W 61-50	Right
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Christian Brothersnot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Vanderbiltrank 6	Away	0%	49-92	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Josie GilvinG · transfer from Kentucky	1	37.0	10.0	10.0	4.0	+1.7	+2.6
Trinity RoweG	1	34.0	7.0	1.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.2
Kamille BrownG · transfer from UL Monroe	1	30.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	−1.7	+0.3
Torri JamesF	1	24.0	3.0	7.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Hayven SmithF · transfer from Illinois	1	24.0	13.0	4.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.8
Ellery MinchF · transfer from Murray St	1	19.0	4.0	5.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.2
Jamila RayG	1	17.0	14.0	3.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Tatum BoettjerF	1	15.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−4.9	−0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.6%rank 344	44.8%rank 229	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.4%rank 102	24.1%rank 100	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 244	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.9%rank 49	19.9%rank 112	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.6 expected (+0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.8 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −10.8
Last season's net rating: −15.5
Last season's minutes returning: 42%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.2
Change since preseason: +3.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 86.3 (rank 225)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.0 (rank 203)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.7 (rank 319)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −11.2 (rank 190)

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	+10.9	95.9	85.0	72
2	Liberty	1-0	0-0	+8.8	98.1	89.3	85
3	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+2.8	93.9	91.2	113
4	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−7.7	86.3	94.0	209
5	Sam Houston	1-0	0-0	−10.4	82.4	92.8	233
6	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.7	95.2	246
7	Kennesaw State	2-0	0-0	−12.1	82.5	94.5	254
8	Florida International	0-1	0-0	−13.2	82.3	95.5	271
9	Delaware	0-1	0-0	−17.0	83.9	100.9	302
10	New Mexico State	0-1	0-0	−17.3	79.9	97.2	304