Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Women's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Memphis · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

MTSU55%45%Memphis

Projected 68-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12

Net rating+2.8Rank 113 of 363 · offence 104, defence 140

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 15%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 12.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Saint Louisrank 199	Home	73%	81-72	W 91-84	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Memphisrank 189	Away	55%	68-67	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Tennesseerank 25	Away	3%	60-84	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at MemphisA win: 16% · a loss: 16%−1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at TennesseeA win: 23% · a loss: 16%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Blair BaugusG	1	45.0	23.0	12.0	4.0	+3.8	+4.8
Mya KoneG · transfer from Miami	1	40.0	20.0	9.0	4.0	+1.1	+2.4
Stanislava KabernickF	1	34.0	9.0	6.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.6
Kirston VerhulstG	1	28.0	10.0	2.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.9
Maayan CohenG	1	20.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.5
Xai WhitfieldG · transfer from Tennessee St	1	19.0	12.0	2.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.4
Aaliyah BlanchardG	1	15.0	7.0	6.0	1.0	−0.5	+0.4
Carsyn SwaneyG	1	14.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.5
Nicole DominguezC	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.4%rank 349	48.1%rank 360	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 119	24.8%rank 54	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.3%rank 90	31.4%rank 28	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	25.2%rank 1	23.4%rank 344	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −10.0 points a game (they shot 40.7%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −2.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +0.8
Last season's net rating: +0.7
Last season's minutes returning: 44%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.3
Change since preseason: +2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.9 (rank 104)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.1 (rank 140)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 307)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.2 (rank 167)

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	+10.9	95.8	84.9	72
2	Liberty	1-0	0-0	+8.8	98.0	89.2	85
3	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+2.8	93.9	91.1	113
4	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−7.7	86.2	93.9	209
5	Sam Houston	1-0	0-0	−10.4	82.3	92.7	233
6	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.6	95.1	246
7	Kennesaw State	2-0	0-0	−12.1	82.4	94.5	254
8	Florida International	0-1	0-0	−13.2	82.2	95.4	270
9	Delaware	0-1	0-0	−17.0	83.8	100.8	302
10	New Mexico State	0-1	0-0	−17.3	79.8	97.1	304