Tennessee Lady Volunteers

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Coppin St · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Tennessee99%1%Coppin St

Projected 89-54 · Game page

Makes the tournament69%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 6.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 2% · projected 22-11

Net rating+26.0Rank 25 of 363 · offence 18, defence 41

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-11 (17 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 2%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 6.0
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field69%
Round of 3253%
Sweet 1620%
Elite Eight6%
Final Four2%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Duquesnerank 219	Home	98%	97-68	W 109-62	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Coppin Staterank 310	Away	99%	89-54	Live
Tue 10 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs New Havenrank 348	Home	100%	93-44	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Middle Tennesseerank 113	Home	97%	84-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 69% · the next 7 days

Thu 12 Nov: vs Middle TennesseeA win: 69% · a loss: 62%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jada EadsG · transfer from Seton Hall	1	23.0	12.0	2.0	6.0	+6.0	+3.5
Kaylene SmikleG · transfer from Maryland	1	21.0	31.0	8.0	4.0	+8.1	+4.0
Aaliyah MooreF	1	19.0	11.0	5.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.0
Rylie TheuerkaufG · transfer from Georgia	1	19.0	13.0	3.0	2.0	+6.8	+3.2
Kennedy FauntleroyG · transfer from East Carolina	1	18.0	0.0	3.0	2.0	+5.3	+2.5
Gabby MinusG	1	18.0	13.0	6.0	3.0	+0.6	+0.9
Fatmata JannehF · transfer from Texas A&M	1	17.0	5.0	10.0	3.0	+7.5	+3.1
Naomi WhiteG · transfer from N Arizona	1	17.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	+3.1	+1.7
Zhen CraftF · transfer from Georgia	1	17.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	+7.6	+3.1
Riley MakaluskyF · transfer from West Virginia	1	12.0	6.0	1.0	0.0	+7.2	+2.1
Harissoum CoulibalyG · transfer from Auburn	1	12.0	0.0	3.0	1.0	+5.8	+1.8
Harper PetersonF · transfer from Stanford	1	4.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+3.9	+0.5
Shaelyn SteeleG · transfer from Penn State	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	+3.2	+0.2
Irene OboavwoduoG	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 95	43.7%rank 84	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.7%rank 5	24.9%rank 54	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.7%rank 71	35.7%rank 342	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 224	19.8%rank 107	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.4 points a game (they shot 27.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +22.9
Last season's net rating: +29.7
Last season's minutes returning: 0%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +12.9
Change since preseason: +3.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.5 (rank 18)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.4 (rank 41)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.4 (rank 16)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −8.7 (rank 181)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.0	75.0	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.1	77.0	5
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.3	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.4	75.8	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.2	77.2	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.5	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.0	108.5	82.4	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.6	80.1	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.0	104.2	82.2	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.5	78.9	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	101.9	84.5	46
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.6	105.6	89.0	50
13	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	97.9	82.7	61
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.6	86.8	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	95.8	86.7	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.0	91.5	90