Mississippi State Bulldogs

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at UT Martin · Sun 8 Nov, 3 PM ET

Mississippi St95%5%UT Martin

Projected 79-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament50%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.3

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 19-12

Net rating+20.7Rank 36 of 363 · offence 62, defence 20

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-12 (14 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-9
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.3
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field50%
Round of 3231%
Sweet 166%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs North Alabamarank 295	Home	99%	86-52	W 68-27	Right
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	at UT Martinrank 237	Away	95%	79-57	—
Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Troyrank 109	Home	94%	81-61	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 50% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at UT MartinA win: 50% · a loss: 51%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs TroyA win: 50% · a loss: 48%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Reese BeatyG · transfer from Iowa State	1	28.0	9.0	1.0	5.0	+4.7	+3.5
Madison FrancisF	1	24.0	13.0	7.0	0.0	+8.8	+4.8
Tootie LockettG	1	23.0	8.0	2.0	0.0	+0.4	+1.1
Macie PhiferG · transfer from MTSU	1	22.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+3.6	+2.3
Favour NwaedoziF	1	21.0	14.0	11.0	0.0	+9.2	+4.4
Cali SmallwoodG · transfer from UAB	1	19.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.6	+1.7
Aryss MacktoonG · transfer from La Salle	1	16.0	7.0	3.0	1.0	+5.6	+2.3
Lani SmallwoodG	1	14.0	8.0	5.0	1.0	+0.7	+0.7
Melissa GuilletG	1	12.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	+3.1	+1.2
Grace NdubuezeF	1	12.0	2.0	7.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.6
Ludovica SammartinoF	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	2.0	+0.9	+0.4
Andrea FloresG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.1%rank 264	41.3%rank 4	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.5%rank 294	27.0%rank 6	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.4%rank 79	36.5%rank 355	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.1%rank 301	19.7%rank 102	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +16.2 points a game (they shot 7.7%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +4.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.6
Last season's net rating: +21.5
Last season's minutes returning: 29%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.9
Change since preseason: +2.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 99.6 (rank 62)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 79.0 (rank 20)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.2 (rank 84)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −16.4 (rank 223)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.1	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.2	77.1	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.5	78.6	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	75.9	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.3	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.8	107.6	77.8	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.6	82.5	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.6	105.8	80.2	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.1	104.3	82.2	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.7	99.6	79.0	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	102.0	84.6	45
12	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	98.0	82.8	59
13	Florida	1-0	0-0	+13.6	102.1	88.5	65
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.7	86.9	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.2	95.9	86.8	81
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.2	91.5	90