Georgia Lady Bulldogs

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Nicholls · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Nicholls1%99%Georgia

Projected 79-49 · Game page

Makes the tournament29%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 8.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 19-13

Net rating+18.4Rank 43 of 363 · offence 49, defence 45

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-13 (15 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-10
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 8.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field29%
Round of 3215%
Sweet 162%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs West Georgiarank 265	Home	97%	95-68	W 92-53	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs Winthroprank 335	Home	100%	87-49	W 75-40	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Nichollsrank 254	Home	99%	79-49	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Kennesaw Staterank 252	Home	99%	81-50	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 29% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs NichollsA win: 29% · a loss: 29%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Kennesaw StateA win: 29% · a loss: 28%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Nya SmithG · transfer from Purdue	2	24.0	12.0	1.5	0.5	+2.9	+2.2
Aubrey BeckhamG	2	24.0	3.5	1.5	2.5	+2.5	+2.0
Jailyn BanksG · transfer from Belmont	2	21.5	3.5	3.0	3.0	+3.5	+2.2
Milan BrownG · transfer from Wake Forest	2	21.5	11.5	6.0	1.0	+2.8	+1.9
Dakota HowardF · transfer from McNeese	2	20.0	17.5	4.5	1.5	+7.8	+3.6
Tyreona SibleyG · transfer from McNeese	2	17.5	7.0	4.0	3.0	+4.4	+2.1
Jordana CodioG · transfer from Seton Hall	2	17.0	6.5	2.5	0.0	+3.5	+1.8
Harmonie WareG · transfer from Arkansas	2	16.5	3.5	3.0	0.0	+2.0	+1.2
Blessing AdebanjoF · transfer from Arizona	2	16.5	11.5	6.5	0.5	+2.5	+1.4
Jordan ThomasF · transfer from West Virginia	2	15.0	6.0	4.5	1.0	+6.2	+2.3
Faith WylderC · transfer from Mississippi St	2	3.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	+3.0	+0.3
Alanna BeckhamG	2	3.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.8%rank 142	44.0%rank 100	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.4%rank 40	27.0%rank 8	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.1%rank 47	31.9%rank 73	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.7%rank 211	22.7%rank 323	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +7.5 points a game (they shot 18.4%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +15.4
Last season's net rating: +27.1
Last season's minutes returning: 6%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +10.1
Change since preseason: +3.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 101.4 (rank 49)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 83.0 (rank 45)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.8 (rank 206)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −17.1 (rank 254)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.1	3
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.2	117.3	77.1	5
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+35.9	114.9	79.0	7
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	76.0	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.3	10
6	Kentucky	2-0	0-0	+32.1	106.3	74.2	15
7	Tennessee	2-0	0-0	+26.1	108.7	82.6	25
8	Alabama	3-0	0-0	+24.9	106.1	81.2	26
9	Ole Miss	2-0	0-0	+22.6	103.3	80.7	31
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+21.5	100.3	78.8	34
11	Georgia	2-0	0-0	+18.4	101.4	83.0	43
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.8	105.8	89.0	50
13	Auburn	2-0	0-0	+11.5	93.6	82.1	70
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.8	86.9	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.4	96.1	86.7	81
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.7	99.2	91.5	88