Nicholls Colonels

Women's · Southland Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Iowa State · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Nicholls2%98%Iowa State

Projected 55-83 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16

Net rating−11.5Rank 247 of 363 · offence 274, defence 225

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-16 (9 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 15.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Dillardnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 83-54
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	at Iowa Staterank 63	Away	2%	55-83	Live
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Georgiarank 46	Away	2%	51-81	—
Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET	vs LSU Alexandrianot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at Iowa StateA win: 7% · a loss: 5%+2 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at GeorgiaA win: 8% · a loss: 5%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Britiya CurtisG	1	40.0	26.0	8.0	4.0	−2.6	−0.3
Shelcie LeBlancG	1	31.0	10.0	1.0	3.0	−2.6	−0.3
Jasmine MatthewsF	1	30.0	24.0	13.0	3.0	−0.9	+0.7
Makayla CharlesF	1	25.0	15.0	7.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.6
Laryn ScottF	1	24.0	2.0	7.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.3
Anyra WilsonG	1	24.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	−1.2	+0.4
Danielle BennettG	1	24.0	4.0	7.0	1.0	−2.5	−0.1
Kaliyah SamuelsF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.9	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.6%rank 139	44.6%rank 134	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 151	23.9%rank 128	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 140	33.5%rank 137	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.4%rank 137	20.4%rank 144	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −11.5
Last season's net rating: −9.2
Last season's minutes returning: 30%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.2 (rank 274)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 94.7 (rank 225)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 186)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Southland Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Stephen F. Austin	1-0	0-0	+1.5	93.4	91.8	125
2	Lamar	1-0	0-0	−2.1	89.1	91.2	160
3	UT Rio Grande Valley	1-0	0-0	−7.2	87.2	94.4	204
4	Incarnate Word	1-0	0-0	−8.3	87.3	95.5	213
5	McNeese	1-0	0-0	−8.5	84.7	93.2	217
6	Nicholls	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.2	94.7	247
7	Northwestern State	1-0	0-0	−11.9	83.0	94.9	255
8	East Texas A&M	1-1	0-0	−12.3	83.9	96.2	260
9	SE Louisiana	1-1	0-0	−14.0	85.2	99.3	280
10	Houston Christian	1-1	0-0	−17.8	75.9	93.7	305
11	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	1-0	0-0	−21.3	77.1	98.4	336
12	LSU New Orleans	0-2	0-0	−30.8	74.1	104.8	358