Incarnate Word Cardinals
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14
Net rating−8.3Rank 213 of 363 · offence 200, defence 246
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 19-14 (13 to 24 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 6%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'Maya HoltonF · transfer from Oral Roberts | 1 | 36.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | +0.8 |
| Gwendlyn McGrewG | 1 | 34.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −1.6 | +0.3 |
| Morgan BorgstadtF | 1 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| N'Kiyah BurgeF | 1 | 25.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Zaviyana MadisonG | 1 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.4 |
| Madison WilliamsG | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.6 |
| Kayanna CoxG · transfer from UCF | 1 | 19.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.7 |
| Mariah HartG · transfer from LSU N Orleans | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.5%rank 71 | 44.2%rank 110 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.2%rank 82 | 24.4%rank 84 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.4%rank 287 | 30.6%rank 8 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 23.6%rank 13 | 18.5%rank 26 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.1 expected (+0.9)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +8.0 points a game (they shot 15.0%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −14.3
- Last season's net rating
- −12.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 42%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.9
- Change since preseason
- +6.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.3 (rank 200)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.5 (rank 246)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.7 (rank 216)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −2.8 (rank 145)
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.4 | 91.8 | 125 |
| 2 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.1 | 91.2 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 87.2 | 94.4 | 204 |
| 4 | Incarnate Word | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.3 | 95.5 | 213 |
| 5 | McNeese | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 84.7 | 93.2 | 217 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 83.2 | 94.7 | 247 |
| 7 | Northwestern State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.9 | 83.0 | 94.9 | 255 |
| 8 | East Texas A&M | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 83.9 | 96.2 | 260 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 85.2 | 99.3 | 280 |
| 10 | Houston Christian | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.8 | 75.9 | 93.7 | 305 |
| 11 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.3 | 77.1 | 98.4 | 336 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-2 | 0-0 | −30.8 | 74.1 | 104.8 | 358 |