East Texas A&M Lions
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-19
Net rating−12.3Rank 258 of 363 · offence 255, defence 265
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-19 (9 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 11-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Oklahoma Christiannot Division I | Home | — | — | W 81-40 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Cincinnatirank 100 | Away | 4% | 56-81 | L 58-66 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov7 PM ET | at SMUrank 114 | Away | 9% | 55-73 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | vs Louisianarank 238 | Home | 61% | 67-63 | — |
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cora HorvathG | 2 | 27.5 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | −4.0 | −0.9 |
| Rezia CastilloG | 2 | 26.0 | 17.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Samantha SerranoG · transfer from UIC | 2 | 24.5 | 16.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Terrayah McCoyG | 2 | 22.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | −3.4 | −0.5 |
| Blayke BrackensG | 2 | 21.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Jailynn BrillF · transfer from Tarleton St | 2 | 20.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | −3.1 | −0.3 |
| Jadyn FifeF · transfer from Colorado St | 2 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −0.3 | +0.5 |
| Torie SevierF · transfer from Texas A&M-CC | 2 | 14.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 |
| Nina HorvathG | 2 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Brooklyn TerryG · transfer from UTEP | 1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.4 |
| Jeriyah BainesF · transfer from South Alabama | 1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.8%rank 123 | 43.5%rank 68 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.5%rank 105 | 23.6%rank 246 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.6%rank 134 | 32.9%rank 104 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 116 | 21.0%rank 269 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.0 points a game
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −15.2
- Last season's net rating
- −14.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 42%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.3
- Change since preseason
- +2.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.0 (rank 255)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.3 (rank 265)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.9 (rank 192)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +5.4 (rank 90)
Southland Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.4 | 91.9 | 125 |
| 2 | Lamar | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.1 | 91.2 | 160 |
| 3 | UT Rio Grande Valley | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 87.3 | 94.4 | 204 |
| 4 | Incarnate Word | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.3 | 95.6 | 213 |
| 5 | McNeese | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 84.7 | 93.2 | 217 |
| 6 | Nicholls | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 83.2 | 94.7 | 247 |
| 7 | Northwestern State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.9 | 83.0 | 94.9 | 254 |
| 8 | East Texas A&M | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.3 | 84.0 | 96.3 | 258 |
| 9 | SE Louisiana | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 85.2 | 99.3 | 279 |
| 10 | Houston Christian | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.8 | 75.9 | 93.7 | 305 |
| 11 | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.3 | 77.2 | 98.4 | 336 |
| 12 | LSU New Orleans | 0-2 | 0-0 | −30.7 | 74.1 | 104.8 | 358 |