SMU Mustangs

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs East Texas A&M · Sun 8 Nov, 7 PM ET

East Texas A&M9%91%SMU

Projected 73-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating+2.8Rank 114 of 363 · offence 163, defence 74

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (10 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 10.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Le Moynerank 357	Home	96%	79-55	W 72-36	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs Hamptonrank 267	Home	94%	76-55	W 66-54	Right
Sun 8 Nov7 PM ET	vs East Texas A&Mrank 260	Home	91%	73-55	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Long Island Universityrank 346	Home	99%	79-51	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs East Texas A&MA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Long Island UniversityA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Adja KaneF	2	25.5	4.0	7.0	1.5	−1.0	+0.5
Mailien RolfG	2	24.5	6.0	4.0	0.5	−1.0	+0.5
Grace EzebiloF · transfer from Charleston	2	24.5	11.0	14.0	1.0	+4.0	+2.8
Theresa Hagans Jr.G · transfer from Pitt	2	24.5	12.5	5.5	3.5	+0.6	+1.2
Shania JamesG	2	20.5	9.0	1.5	3.0	−0.8	+0.5
Zahra KingG	2	16.5	6.5	2.0	1.0	+1.6	+1.1
Camille NesmithC	2	15.5	5.0	5.5	1.0	−0.5	+0.5
Kaylin JacksonF	2	12.0	2.0	4.5	0.5	−0.5	+0.4
Elise HillG	2	10.5	7.0	0.5	1.0	−0.4	+0.3
Kinsea GrimesF · transfer from Coastal	2	10.0	0.0	0.5	0.5	+3.4	+1.0
Izela ArenasG · transfer from Kansas St	2	9.5	5.0	2.5	0.5	+2.5	+0.8
Roxy WhiteF	1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.3
Zoe OsbyF	1	6.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.0%rank 356	43.0%rank 35	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.2%rank 273	25.4%rank 28	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	37.2%rank 2	33.6%rank 231	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	17.8%rank 357	19.6%rank 92	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.7 points a game (they shot 30.0%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −1.9
Last season's net rating: −5.9
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.3
Change since preseason: +4.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 89.5 (rank 163)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 86.7 (rank 74)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.8 (rank 116)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −21.9 (rank 250)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.9	111.3	75.4	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.4	74.9	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.5	81.9	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.2	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.5	80.6	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.5	81.1	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.3	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.2	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.0	52
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.7	100.6	85.0	53
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.4	100.2	85.8	61
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.1	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.4	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.8	89.5	86.7	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.7	89.9	134
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.0	159
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.4	94.2	188