NC State Wolfpack

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Kentucky · Sun 8 Nov, 3 PM ET

Kentucky54%46%NC State

Projected 69-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament89%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 4% · projected 25-8

Net rating+28.3Rank 23 of 363 · offence 23, defence 21

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-8 (20 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 4.7
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field89%
Round of 3275%
Sweet 1639%
Elite Eight14%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Woffordrank 194	Home	99%	98-64	W 80-50	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Campbellrank 287	Home	100%	85-45	W 80-45	Right
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Kentuckyrank 17	Neutral	46%	69-71	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Libertyrank 85	Home	94%	80-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 89% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs KentuckyA win: 91% · a loss: 88%+4 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs LibertyA win: 89% · a loss: 87%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ky'She LunanG	2	30.5	13.0	4.5	2.5	+4.0	+3.5
Desiree WootenG · transfer from Colorado	2	27.5	8.0	4.5	3.0	+6.8	+4.6
Khamil PierreF	2	26.5	18.0	11.0	2.0	+9.9	+5.9
Zoe BrooksG	2	26.5	19.5	4.0	5.5	+8.9	+5.5
Qadence SamuelsG	2	18.5	5.0	4.0	0.0	+5.9	+2.8
Khady LeyeF · transfer from Auburn	2	17.0	3.5	5.0	1.0	+5.0	+2.2
Kamora PruittG	2	15.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	+0.6	+0.8
Adelaide JerniganG	2	11.0	3.0	1.5	1.5	+4.2	+1.3
Annsley TrivetteF	2	11.0	7.5	3.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.6
Maddie CoxF	2	10.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	+5.9	+1.6
Audrey EricksenG · transfer from Boston U	2	3.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	−0.8	+0.1
Favour OssaiF	2	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.0	+1.3	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.2%rank 46	43.3%rank 45	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.9%rank 64	23.3%rank 273	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.2%rank 247	33.1%rank 109	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.1%rank 352	18.1%rank 16	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.0 points a game (they shot 23.8%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +28.7
Last season's net rating: +30.6
Last season's minutes returning: 61%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.0
Change since preseason: −0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.5 (rank 23)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 79.3 (rank 21)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.1 (rank 90)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.2 (rank 185)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188