North Carolina Tar Heels

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs South Carolina · Sun 8 Nov, 5:30 PM ET

North Carolina15%85%South Carolina

Projected 68-81 · Game page

Makes the tournament89%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 4% · projected 25-9

Net rating+29.4Rank 19 of 363 · offence 22, defence 15

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-9 (21 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 12%
Average seed if in the field: 5.0
A 1 seed: 2%

Makes the field89%
Round of 3275%
Sweet 1639%
Elite Eight14%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Oklahomarank 9	Neutral	42%	84-87	L 79-91	Right
Sun 8 Nov5:30 PM ET	vs South Carolinarank 2	Neutral	15%	68-81	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs North Carolina Centralrank 333	Home	100%	92-42	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 89% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs South CarolinaA win: 90% · a loss: 89%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kate HarpringG	1	34.0	21.0	6.0	5.0	+0.3	+1.5
Reniya KellyG	1	33.0	11.0	1.0	7.0	+5.7	+4.8
Nyla BrooksG	1	30.0	13.0	2.0	2.0	+7.7	+5.5
Sophie BurrowsG · transfer from Syracuse	1	24.0	9.0	8.0	1.0	+7.4	+4.2
Achol AkotF · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	24.0	11.0	8.0	2.0	+10.2	+5.5
Gabby WhiteG · transfer from Virginia	1	17.0	10.0	4.0	2.0	+5.9	+2.5
Taissa QueirozG	1	14.0	0.0	6.0	2.0	+6.5	+2.2
Laila HullG	1	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+8.3	+1.4
Noelle BofiaC	1	7.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	+1.0	+0.4
Blanca ThomasC	1	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+6.1	+0.9
Chloe ClardyG · transfer from Stanford	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+7.6	+0.7

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.7%rank 283	45.8%rank 304	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 75	24.0%rank 123	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.0%rank 55	35.1%rank 317	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.6%rank 328	20.4%rank 140	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −6.2 points a game (they shot 35.7%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +30.8
Last season's net rating: +35.2
Last season's minutes returning: 43%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +12.0
Change since preseason: −1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 107.5 (rank 22)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 78.1 (rank 15)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.7 (rank 118)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +35.5 (rank 7)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.2	75.4	7
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.4	108.3	74.9	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.4	81.8	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.5	78.1	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.2	107.4	79.2	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.8	103.4	80.6	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.4	81.0	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.2	83.3	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+16.9	101.1	84.2	49
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.7	83.0	54
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.5	84.9	55
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.1	85.8	63
13	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.7	85.4	71
14	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.1	100.2	88.2	72
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.3	86.7	114
16	Wake Forest	2-0	0-0	+0.4	91.9	91.5	139
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.0	93.0	157
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−5.8	89.3	95.0	191