Virginia Tech Hokies

Women's · Atlantic Coast Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs James Madison · Sun 8 Nov, 6 PM ET

James Madison20%80%Virginia Tech

Projected 74-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament66%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.5

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 1% · projected 23-8

Net rating+22.9Rank 31 of 363 · offence 37, defence 27

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-8 (19 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 7.5
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field66%
Round of 3241%
Sweet 168%
Elite Eight2%
Final Four1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs North Carolina Centralrank 330	Home	100%	100-63	W 85-39	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs Delawarerank 302	Home	99%	82-50	W 101-53	Right
Sun 8 Nov6 PM ET	vs James Madisonrank 55	Home	80%	74-62	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	at VCUrank 166	Away	90%	75-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 66% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs James MadisonA win: 68% · a loss: 60%+8 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at VCUA win: 67% · a loss: 62%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Samyha SuffrenG	2	23.0	13.5	3.5	1.5	+7.5	+4.1
Leila WellsG	2	23.0	10.0	3.5	2.5	+5.0	+3.1
Carleigh WenzelG	2	21.5	17.5	2.0	3.0	+7.6	+3.9
Kaleo AndersonG	2	20.5	8.5	4.0	1.5	+1.8	+1.5
Kate SearsG	2	20.0	4.5	2.0	3.5	+1.8	+1.5
Jessica DimaroC	2	19.0	16.0	10.0	1.0	+2.1	+1.5
Aniya TrentF	2	17.5	3.0	3.0	3.0	+5.9	+2.6
Amani JenkinsF	2	17.0	11.5	6.0	1.5	+6.4	+2.7
Francesca BaldassarreG	2	14.0	2.5	1.0	1.0	+2.0	+1.1
Arianna Harris-MottF	2	11.5	2.5	4.5	0.5	+2.2	+0.9
Alyssa LathamF · transfer from Tennessee	1	17.0	5.0	3.0	2.0	+9.0	+3.5
Natalee GoffG	2	4.5	1.0	1.5	0.5	+2.6	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.4%rank 36	40.9%rank 3	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	21.9%rank 14	25.5%rank 23	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.1%rank 102	34.3%rank 272	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.9%rank 315	22.5%rank 331	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.3 points a game (they shot 13.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.3
Last season's net rating: +23.7
Last season's minutes returning: 39%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +3.7
Change since preseason: +6.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 103.6 (rank 37)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 80.7 (rank 27)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.6 (rank 58)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.9 (rank 240)

Atlantic Coast Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Louisville	2-0	0-0	+35.8	111.3	75.5	8
2	Duke	1-0	0-0	+33.5	108.5	75.0	12
3	Notre Dame	1-0	0-0	+29.6	111.6	82.0	18
4	North Carolina	0-1	0-0	+29.4	107.6	78.2	19
5	NC State	2-0	0-0	+28.3	107.5	79.3	23
6	Virginia Tech	2-0	0-0	+22.9	103.6	80.7	31
7	California	1-0	0-0	+22.4	103.6	81.2	32
8	Miami	1-0	0-0	+18.9	102.4	83.4	40
9	Virginia	1-0	0-0	+17.0	101.2	84.3	47
10	Syracuse	1-0	0-0	+15.7	98.8	83.1	53
11	Clemson	1-0	0-0	+15.6	100.7	85.0	54
12	Stanford	1-1	0-0	+14.3	100.3	85.9	62
13	Florida State	2-0	0-0	+12.7	99.9	87.2	68
14	Georgia Tech	1-0	0-0	+12.3	97.8	85.5	71
15	SMU	2-0	0-0	+2.7	89.5	86.8	114
16	Wake Forest	1-0	0-0	+0.8	90.8	90.0	133
17	Pittsburgh	1-0	0-0	−1.9	91.2	93.1	158
18	Boston College	0-1	0-0	−4.8	89.5	94.3	188