VCU Rams
Next: vs Virginia Tech · Thu 12 Nov, 6 PM ETProjected 58-75 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16
Net rating−2.2Rank 166 of 363 · offence 215, defence 104
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-16 (10 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 12.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs Central Connecticutrank 355 | Home | 99% | 81-50 | W 67-43 | Right |
| Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET | vs Virginia Techrank 31 | Home | 10% | 58-75 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Virginia TechA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ada Toribio SaezG | 1 | 40.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.7 | +0.3 |
| Macy SpencerG · transfer from High Point | 1 | 38.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | +2.7 | +3.4 |
| Ann ZachariahF | 1 | 32.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 |
| Nicole ToresaniF | 1 | 31.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.4 |
| Cyriah GriffinG | 1 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Laia CrespinG | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Katarina KnezevicG | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +0.8 | +0.6 |
| Lucy GhaifanF | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +1.7 | +0.5 |
| Lucia SoteloF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 45.1%rank 110 | 43.9%rank 87 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.5%rank 298 | 24.9%rank 46 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.4%rank 331 | 33.6%rank 229 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.6%rank 117 | 18.5%rank 32 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.8 points a game (they shot 18.2%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −0.6
- Last season's net rating
- −8.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 73%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.4
- Change since preseason
- −1.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 86.8 (rank 215)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 89.0 (rank 104)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.2 (rank 175)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −29.0 (rank 264)
Atlantic 10 Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Joseph's | 0-0 | 0-0 | +15.2 | 100.6 | 85.3 | 60 |
| 2 | Richmond | 1-0 | 0-0 | +13.8 | 102.0 | 88.2 | 64 |
| 3 | Davidson | 0-1 | 0-0 | +13.3 | 99.0 | 85.7 | 66 |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.7 | 96.2 | 86.6 | 79 |
| 5 | George Mason | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.4 | 97.0 | 88.5 | 86 |
| 6 | George Washington | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 91.7 | 91.1 | 135 |
| 7 | Dayton | 0-0 | 0-0 | −0.6 | 91.7 | 92.3 | 145 |
| 8 | VCU | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 86.8 | 89.0 | 166 |
| 9 | La Salle | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 89.1 | 91.8 | 168 |
| 10 | Fordham | 2-0 | 0-0 | −3.0 | 86.4 | 89.4 | 174 |
| 11 | Saint Louis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 89.4 | 95.7 | 199 |
| 12 | St. Bonaventure | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.2 | 86.8 | 94.0 | 206 |
| 13 | Duquesne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.7 | 87.2 | 95.8 | 218 |
| 14 | Loyola Chicago | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.5 | 86.3 | 96.7 | 235 |