St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Women's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Mercyhurst · Wed 11 Nov, 4:30 PM ET

Mercyhurst15%85%St Bonaventure

Projected 72-57 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-18

Net rating−7.2Rank 205 of 363 · offence 216, defence 206

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 13-18 (7 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs D'Youvillenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 68-56
Wed 11 Nov4:30 PM ET	vs Mercyhurstrank 322	Home	85%	72-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Wed 11 Nov: vs MercyhurstA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Elyse MacDonoughG	1	34.0	15.0	4.0	2.0	−2.3	−0.1
Ella TrinkausF	1	28.0	21.0	4.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.4
Ivona DjikanovicG	1	27.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	−2.1	0.0
Mackenzie PettinelliG	1	22.0	2.0	4.0	4.0	−0.9	+0.5
Brillana BoydF	1	21.0	12.0	5.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.8
Kylie BuckleyF	1	15.0	3.0	2.0	2.0	−1.9	+0.1
Diamond FieldsG	1	15.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.1
Olivia DiFrancoG	1	14.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	+0.1	+0.6
Kyla HayesF · transfer from St John's	1	12.0	4.0	3.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.4
Kaylee KrysztofG	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.1
Mallory HeiseG	1	3.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−1.8	0.0
Jordyn WilliamsF · transfer from Niagara	1	2.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−4.5	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −7.2
Last season's net rating: −5.0
Last season's minutes returning: 61%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.1
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 86.7 (rank 216)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 93.9 (rank 206)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.6 (rank 226)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Joseph's	0-0	0-0	+15.2	100.5	85.3	61
2	Richmond	1-0	0-0	+13.4	102.2	88.8	66
3	Davidson	0-2	0-0	+10.5	98.0	87.5	75
4	Rhode Island	0-1	0-0	+9.1	96.0	86.9	83
5	George Mason	2-0	0-0	+5.0	94.1	89.1	99
6	George Washington	1-1	0-0	+3.1	92.7	89.6	112
7	Dayton	0-1	0-0	−1.5	92.0	93.5	153
8	VCU	1-0	0-0	−2.6	86.5	89.1	165
9	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−2.8	89.1	91.8	167
10	Fordham	2-0	0-0	−4.1	85.6	89.7	184
11	Saint Louis	1-1	0-0	−4.8	91.0	95.8	186
12	St. Bonaventure	1-0	0-0	−7.2	86.7	93.9	205
13	Duquesne	0-1	0-0	−8.8	87.1	95.8	219
14	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−10.4	86.2	96.7	235