George Mason Patriots

Women's · Atlantic 10 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Akron · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Akron4%96%George Mason

Projected 82-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament18%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 21-13

Net rating+8.4Rank 86 of 363 · offence 81, defence 95

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-13 (15 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 10%
Wins the conference tournament: 9%
Average seed if in the field: 10.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field18%
Round of 323%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Templerank 129	Home	65%	82-77	W 91-71	Right
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	vs Akronrank 269	Home	96%	82-59	Live
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	at Marylandrank 21	Away	5%	62-85	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Armyrank 105	Away	46%	65-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 18% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs AkronA win: 18% · a loss: 18%−1 pts
Sun 8 Nov: at MarylandA win: 24% · a loss: 18%+6 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at ArmyA win: 20% · a loss: 16%+4 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Summer YancyG · transfer from UCF	1	32.0	14.0	9.0	2.0	+1.0	+1.8
Anovia ShealsG · transfer from Austin Peay	1	29.0	17.0	4.0	2.0	+2.9	+2.6
Lourdes Da Silva CostaF · transfer from Alabama	1	27.0	10.0	5.0	2.0	+2.9	+2.5
Mary AmoatengG	1	27.0	21.0	4.0	4.0	+4.6	+3.3
Mary-Kate TshibuabuaF · transfer from Rhode Island	1	23.0	2.0	7.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.6
Kayla JohnsonG	1	21.0	7.0	2.0	3.0	+0.4	+1.0
Madison BobG	1	21.0	12.0	1.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.3
Trinity MassenburgF	1	10.0	0.0	4.0	1.0	+0.9	+0.6
Kailani MerrellG	1	5.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.1
Roisin GrandberryF · transfer from Loyola Chicago	1	3.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	−1.4	0.0
Irati Franco DominguezG	1	2.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.5%rank 29	45.3%rank 267	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.2%rank 321	23.9%rank 215	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.9%rank 17	34.4%rank 283	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.2%rank 37	22.6%rank 331	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.7 expected (+0.3)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.9 points a game (they shot 34.6%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +5.5
Last season's net rating: +15.8
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.3
Change since preseason: +2.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.8 (rank 81)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.4 (rank 95)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.6 (rank 226)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +1.4 (rank 111)

Atlantic 10 Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Saint Joseph's	0-0	0-0	+15.2	100.4	85.2	60
2	Richmond	1-0	0-0	+13.5	102.1	88.6	65
3	Davidson	0-1	0-0	+13.3	98.9	85.6	66
4	Rhode Island	0-1	0-0	+9.7	96.1	86.4	79
5	George Mason	1-0	0-0	+8.4	96.8	88.4	86
6	George Washington	1-0	0-0	+0.6	91.5	90.9	135
7	Dayton	0-0	0-0	−0.6	91.5	92.1	145
8	VCU	1-0	0-0	−2.6	86.4	89.0	167
9	La Salle	0-1	0-0	−2.7	89.0	91.7	168
10	Fordham	2-0	0-0	−4.2	85.4	89.6	185
11	Saint Louis	0-1	0-0	−6.2	89.3	95.5	196
12	St. Bonaventure	1-0	0-0	−7.2	86.6	93.8	206
13	Duquesne	0-1	0-0	−8.7	87.0	95.7	219
14	Loyola Chicago	1-0	0-0	−10.5	86.1	96.6	236