Maryland Terrapins

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs George Mason · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

George Mason4%96%Maryland

Projected 85-62 · Game page

Makes the tournament77%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.4

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 4% · projected 21-11

Net rating+28.8Rank 21 of 363 · offence 9, defence 46

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 21-11 (16 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 5.4
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field77%
Round of 3263%
Sweet 1630%
Elite Eight10%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs South Carolinarank 2	Neutral	11%	78-95	L 93-101	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs George Masonrank 86	Home	96%	85-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 77% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs George MasonA win: 77% · a loss: 70%+7 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Bri McDanielG	1	35.0	11.0	3.0	6.0	+1.1	+2.1
Addi MackG	1	33.0	35.0	3.0	6.0	+8.3	+6.5
Oluchi OkananwaG	1	26.0	11.0	9.0	4.0	+13.3	+7.5
Jordyn JacksonG	1	25.0	5.0	2.0	0.0	+1.2	+1.6
Nunu AgaraF · transfer from Stanford	1	24.0	12.0	5.0	0.0	+9.9	+5.4
Trinity JonesG	1	24.0	11.0	5.0	3.0	+1.3	+1.5
Lea BartelmeG	1	17.0	3.0	0.0	3.0	+6.6	+2.8
Rainey WelsonG	1	12.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	+6.4	+1.9
Oumou ThieroF	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.3

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.9%rank 53	46.5%rank 336	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 76	23.4%rank 271	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.1%rank 49	36.6%rank 355	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.6%rank 124	22.0%rank 317	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −10.4 points a game (they shot 50.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −4.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +27.1
Last season's net rating: +34.8
Last season's minutes returning: 38%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +4.4
Change since preseason: +1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.0 (rank 9)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 83.2 (rank 46)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.7 (rank 47)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +45.0 (rank 2)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.8	71.8	3
2	Ohio State	2-0	0-0	+40.8	110.5	69.6	4
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.8	114.3	78.4	6
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.3	109.9	75.5	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.3	112.1	78.7	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.8	77.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.4	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.3	107.2	77.8	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.0	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.4	78.8	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.8	104.2	80.4	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.2	105.0	81.7	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.3	102.0	83.7	42
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.3	89.5	68
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.0	87.0	84
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.6	96.9	91.2	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.8	90.5	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.8	92.8	92.0	131