Indiana Hoosiers

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs S Illinois · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

S Illinois1%99%Indiana

Projected 86-51 · Game page

Makes the tournament33%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 19-13

Net rating+18.3Rank 42 of 363 · offence 46, defence 50

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-13 (15 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field33%
Round of 3219%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Florida Gulf Coastrank 136	Home	90%	77-58	W 79-50	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	vs Southern Illinoisrank 289	Home	99%	86-51	—
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Bradleyrank 163	Home	95%	78-56	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 33% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Southern IllinoisA win: 33% · a loss: 34%−1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs BradleyA win: 33% · a loss: 31%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kenzie HareG · transfer from Iowa State	1	26.0	8.0	2.0	0.0	+3.3	+2.6
Malia SamuelsG · transfer from USC	1	25.0	8.0	2.0	5.0	+4.3	+3.0
Zania Socka-NguemenF	1	23.0	13.0	7.0	0.0	+5.4	+3.2
Maya MakaluskyF	1	22.0	7.0	6.0	3.0	+4.2	+2.6
Lenee BeaumontG	1	21.0	10.0	6.0	1.0	+5.0	+2.8
Addy NyemchekF	1	18.0	7.0	5.0	2.0	−0.3	+0.6
Jess PetrieF · transfer from Nebraska	1	17.0	8.0	3.0	3.0	+8.0	+3.2
Ashlinn JamesG	1	15.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	−0.2	+0.5
Alisa WilliamsF · transfer from Iowa State	1	13.0	12.0	3.0	1.0	+7.1	+2.2
GiGi BattleG	1	12.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.4
Sydney FennF	1	4.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.2
Camille PangonisG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.1
Ashlyn AndersonF	1	1.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.1%rank 103	43.2%rank 44	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.2%rank 266	23.6%rank 238	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.8%rank 120	32.6%rank 87	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.6%rank 124	21.2%rank 276	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +13.1 points a game (they shot 11.5%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +17.1
Last season's net rating: +17.6
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +11.4
Change since preseason: +1.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 102.0 (rank 46)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 83.6 (rank 50)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.4 (rank 136)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +0.6 (rank 116)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.7	71.8	3
2	Ohio State	2-0	0-0	+40.9	110.5	69.6	4
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.8	114.2	78.4	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	109.8	75.5	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.3	112.0	78.7	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.8	77.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.3	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.1	77.8	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.0	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.4	78.8	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.8	104.2	80.3	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.2	104.9	81.7	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.3	102.0	83.6	42
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.3	89.5	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.0	87.0	84
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	96.8	91.2	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.8	90.5	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	92.8	91.9	131