Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Indiana St · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Indiana St2%98%Rutgers

Projected 84-58 · Game page

Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17

Net rating+9.0Rank 83 of 363 · offence 86, defence 79

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 16-17 (12 to 19 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-14
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: 9.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field4%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Long Island Universityrank 346	Home	97%	92-66	W 83-52	Right
Wed 4 Nov	vs La Sallerank 168	Home	91%	75-57	W 75-62	Right
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	vs Indiana Staterank 290	Home	98%	84-58	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs Monmouthrank 153	Home	85%	70-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 4% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs Indiana StateA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs MonmouthA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Mia PauldoG · transfer from Tennessee	2	30.0	21.5	5.0	5.5	+4.2	+3.5
Zachara PerkinsG	2	27.5	10.0	8.5	1.0	+0.2	+1.2
Tara DayeG · transfer from Purdue	2	25.0	7.5	8.0	3.5	+3.9	+2.7
Chikae DesdunesG	2	23.5	8.0	0.5	2.0	−2.2	0.0
Jaylah LampleyG · transfer from Mississippi St	2	23.0	10.0	4.5	0.5	+3.3	+2.3
Imani LesterF	2	19.0	7.5	4.5	0.0	+2.8	+1.7
Mya PauldoG · transfer from Tennessee	2	17.0	4.5	3.0	1.5	+2.5	+1.4
Zennia ThomasF · transfer from Howard	2	14.0	8.0	4.0	0.5	+3.5	+1.4
Natassja KolffF	2	11.0	0.5	1.5	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Lauryn SwannG	2	5.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.1
Kennedy BrandtG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.4	0.0
Hope MasoniusG · transfer from Bucknell	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−3.8	−0.1
Deja YoungG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.1	0.0
Precious Gem WheelerF	1	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−2.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	42.9%rank 337	45.7%rank 295	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.1%rank 76	25.7%rank 20	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.9%rank 22	35.1%rank 315	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.9%rank 249	22.6%rank 333	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −2.0 points a game (they shot 31.7%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +5.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.7
Last season's net rating: −1.0
Last season's minutes returning: 36%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +7.8
Change since preseason: +2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.2 (rank 86)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 87.1 (rank 79)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 196)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −13.8 (rank 209)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131