USC Trojans

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Utah State · Sun 8 Nov, 8 PM ET

Utah State0%100%USC

Projected 92-46 · Game page

Makes the tournament89%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.8

Wins the national title1%Final Four 9% · projected 23-10

Net rating+31.5Rank 15 of 363 · offence 17, defence 14

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-10 (17 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 6%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 3.8
A 1 seed: 11%

Makes the field89%
Round of 3282%
Sweet 1653%
Elite Eight24%
Final Four9%
Title game3%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UNLVrank 122	Neutral	91%	90-71	W 100-68	Right
Sun 8 Nov8 PM ET	vs Utah Staterank 283	Home	100%	92-46	—
Tue 10 Nov10:30 PM ET	vs Charlestonrank 172	Home	99%	87-52	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 89% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Jazzy DavidsonG	1	28.0	23.0	5.0	4.0	+12.4	+7.6
Kennedy SmithG	1	27.0	12.0	1.0	3.0	+9.8	+6.0
JuJu WatkinsG	1	25.0	21.0	5.0	2.0	+2.5	+2.2
Saniyah HallG	1	23.0	22.0	7.0	1.0	+2.6	+2.0
Sara OkekeF	1	23.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	+2.4	+1.9
Sitaya FaganF	1	17.0	11.0	0.0	3.0	+2.6	+1.5
Ryann BennettG · transfer from UC Davis	1	15.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	+6.2	+2.3
Pania DavisC · transfer from Florida St	1	15.0	4.0	4.0	0.0	+7.2	+2.6
Laura WilliamsF	1	14.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	+9.7	+3.1
Rian ForestierG	1	8.0	2.0	4.0	0.0	+7.2	+1.4
Brooklyn ShamblinG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+7.1	+0.5
Alesia TalkouskayaG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.0	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	48.3%rank 3	44.0%rank 89	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.3%rank 91	25.1%rank 42	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.9%rank 59	36.4%rank 353	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.0%rank 247	21.6%rank 301	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.9 points a game (they shot 35.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +27.6
Last season's net rating: +29.9
Last season's minutes returning: 41%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.6
Change since preseason: +3.9

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.5 (rank 17)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 78.0 (rank 14)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.4 (rank 66)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +1.8 (rank 107)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131