Ohio State Buckeyes

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Mercyhurst · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Mercyhurst0%100%Ohio State

Projected 96-39 · Game page

Makes the tournament>99%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 2.2

Wins the national title8%Final Four 34% · projected 28-5

Net rating+40.9Rank 4 of 363 · offence 13, defence 2

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 28-5 (24 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 33%
Wins the conference tournament: 23%
Average seed if in the field: 2.2
A 1 seed: 40%

Makes the field>99%
Round of 3298%
Sweet 1687%
Elite Eight59%
Final Four34%
Title game18%
Champion8%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs UICrank 183	Home	100%	101-63	W 81-34	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs Central Michiganrank 207	Home	100%	90-47	W 103-36	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Mercyhurstrank 321	Home	100%	96-39	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs UConnrank 1	Home	38%	69-73	—

Rooting guide

Chance of a 1 seed now: 40% · the next 7 days

Thu 12 Nov: vs UConnA win: 47% · a loss: 36%+11 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kennedy CambridgeG	2	25.5	13.0	6.0	2.0	+10.9	+6.3
Ava WatsonG	2	25.5	10.0	2.5	3.5	+8.0	+4.9
Jaloni CambridgeG	2	25.5	22.5	5.0	5.5	+13.6	+7.6
Kylee KittsG	2	22.5	6.5	9.5	3.0	+8.8	+4.7
Bryn MartinG	2	21.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	+7.5	+3.9
Elsa LemmilaC	2	20.0	15.0	7.5	2.0	+11.5	+5.2
Adriana DiazF	2	19.0	4.5	6.5	2.0	+2.7	+1.8
Sydney MobleyF	2	18.5	14.0	3.0	0.0	+2.9	+1.8
Atlee VaneskoG	2	11.5	1.0	1.0	0.5	+3.0	+1.1
Seini HenryG	2	11.0	1.5	3.5	0.0	+7.4	+2.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.4%rank 77	41.8%rank 12	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.0%rank 243	29.2%rank 1	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	37.5%rank 2	32.4%rank 76	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.5%rank 275	19.1%rank 61	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 2.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.7 points a game (they shot 16.2%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.3
Last season's net rating: +33.7
Last season's minutes returning: 76%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +5.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.5 (rank 13)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 69.6 (rank 2)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.8 (rank 13)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −5.6 (rank 158)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.7	71.8	3
2	Ohio State	2-0	0-0	+40.9	110.5	69.6	4
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.8	114.2	78.4	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	109.8	75.5	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.3	112.0	78.7	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.8	77.8	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.3	77.9	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.1	77.8	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.0	83.2	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.4	78.8	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.8	104.2	80.3	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.2	104.9	81.7	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.3	102.0	83.6	42
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.3	89.5	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.0	87.0	84
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	96.8	91.2	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	94.8	90.5	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	92.8	91.9	131