UCLA Bruins

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs UC Irvine · Thu 5 Nov, 10 PM ET

UC Irvine2%98%UCLA

Projected 81-52 · Game page

Makes the tournament94%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 3.0

Wins the national title2%Final Four 15% · projected 24-9

Net rating+34.4Rank 11 of 363 · offence 14, defence 7

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-9 (18 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 13-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 12%
Wins the conference tournament: 8%
Average seed if in the field: 3.0
A 1 seed: 24%

Makes the field94%
Round of 3290%
Sweet 1668%
Elite Eight35%
Final Four15%
Title game6%
Champion2%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Lehighrank 121	Home	99%	97-64	W 73-53	Right
Thu 5 Nov10 PM ET	vs UC Irvinerank 96	Home	98%	81-52	—
Thu 12 Nov10:30 PM ET	vs Arizonarank 74	Home	97%	82-57	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 94% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs UC IrvineA win: 94% · a loss: 90%+4 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs ArizonaA win: 94% · a loss: 91%+3 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Donovyn HunterG · transfer from TCU	1	30.0	14.0	3.0	4.0	+8.0	+5.5
Elina AarnisaloG · transfer from North Carolina	1	29.0	9.0	3.0	4.0	+8.9	+5.8
Addy BrownF · transfer from Iowa State	1	24.0	9.0	6.0	3.0	+9.4	+5.0
Sienna BettsF	1	24.0	15.0	7.0	1.0	+11.2	+5.8
KK BransfordG · transfer from Notre Dame	1	22.0	10.0	2.0	0.0	+6.6	+3.5
Timea GardinerF	1	21.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	+1.3	+1.3
Somto OkaforG	1	18.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	+1.4	+1.1
Bonnie DeasG · transfer from Arkansas	1	13.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	+5.7	+1.8
Amanda MuseF	1	11.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	+8.7	+2.2
Lina JerkovicG	1	8.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+1.6	+0.6

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 97	45.7%rank 297	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 252	24.1%rank 100	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.6%rank 132	30.9%rank 16	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.3%rank 346	20.4%rank 133	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −7.3 points a game (they shot 39.1%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.8
Last season's net rating: +58.2
Last season's minutes returning: 15%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +17.0
Change since preseason: −1.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 110.0 (rank 14)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 75.7 (rank 7)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.3 (rank 278)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +1.8 (rank 106)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131