Illinois Fighting Illini

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Southern · Sat 7 Nov, 3 PM ET

Southern0%100%Illinois

Projected 89-45 · Game page

Makes the tournament95%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.9

Wins the national title1%Final Four 8% · projected 25-7

Net rating+33.4Rank 13 of 363 · offence 8, defence 18

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-7 (21 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 4.9
A 1 seed: 3%

Makes the field95%
Round of 3284%
Sweet 1648%
Elite Eight21%
Final Four8%
Title game3%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs Detroit Mercyrank 278	Home	100%	96-45	W 84-50	Right
Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET	vs Southernrank 267	Home	100%	89-45	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 95% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Berry WallaceF	1	30.0	21.0	11.0	2.0	+8.4	+5.8
Cearah ParchmentF	1	27.0	22.0	11.0	1.0	+10.1	+6.0
Gretchen DolanG	1	25.0	10.0	3.0	2.0	+6.7	+4.1
Destiny JacksonG	1	25.0	7.0	5.0	9.0	+7.0	+4.2
Jasmine Brown-HaggerG	1	23.0	5.0	0.0	2.0	+4.8	+2.9
Maddie WebberG	1	22.0	4.0	4.0	2.0	+6.5	+3.5
Aaliyah GuytonG	1	17.0	9.0	3.0	1.0	+5.3	+2.3
Manuella AlvesF	1	12.0	0.0	4.0	1.0	+0.5	+0.6
Divine BourrageG · transfer from LSU	1	11.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	+6.4	+1.7
Lety VasconcelosC	1	8.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	+6.0	+1.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.0%rank 118	43.9%rank 85	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.6%rank 301	22.2%rank 337	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.9%rank 16	31.7%rank 44	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	24.3%rank 6	20.8%rank 258	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +5.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +35.6
Last season's net rating: +27.6
Last season's minutes returning: 98%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +1.7
Change since preseason: −2.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 112.2 (rank 8)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 78.9 (rank 18)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.3 (rank 168)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −14.0 (rank 211)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131