Detroit Mercy Titans
Next: at Valparaiso · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 68-64 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-20
Net rating−14.0Rank 277 of 363 · offence 271, defence 285
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-20 (7 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Michigan Dearbornnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 94-30 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Illinoisrank 13 | Away | 0% | 45-96 | L 50-84 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | at Valparaisorank 345 | Away | 63% | 68-64 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov7 PM ET | at Notre Damerank 18 | Away | 0% | 50-93 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at ValparaisoA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makayla JacksonG | 2 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Paula LopezG · transfer from Buffalo | 2 | 25.5 | 12.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | −4.4 | −1.1 |
| Maya AndersonG | 2 | 24.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | −3.7 | −0.7 |
| Naïma DiawaraF | 2 | 22.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | −0.8 |
| Marie OutlayG | 2 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Stephanie UtomiF · transfer from Mercer | 2 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Anna LassanF | 2 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −3.6 | −0.4 |
| Addisen MastrianoC | 2 | 13.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | −2.9 | −0.2 |
| Stacy UtomiG | 2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Colleena BryantG | 2 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Alonna DivineG | 2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
| Nina RodriguezG | 2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −1.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.8%rank 275 | 44.9%rank 234 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.3%rank 28 | 24.7%rank 61 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.7%rank 317 | 35.9%rank 348 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 109 | 24.3%rank 355 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.4 points a game (they shot 31.2%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −4.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.2
- Last season's net rating
- −17.6
- Last season's minutes returning
- 39%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.4
- Change since preseason
- +2.3
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 83.2 (rank 271)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 97.2 (rank 285)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.8 (rank 113)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +33.3 (rank 10)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.1 | 96.2 | 87.1 | 82 |
| 2 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 88.3 | 90.3 | 158 |
| 3 | Cleveland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.2 | 88.7 | 91.9 | 180 |
| 4 | IU Indianapolis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 88.9 | 94.7 | 192 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 88.5 | 98.1 | 228 |
| 6 | Oakland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 88.0 | 97.6 | 229 |
| 7 | Northern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 85.3 | 96.8 | 246 |
| 8 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 83.3 | 95.8 | 263 |
| 9 | Milwaukee | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 85.1 | 97.9 | 264 |
| 10 | Detroit Mercy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 83.2 | 97.2 | 277 |
| 11 | Wright State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 86.5 | 100.6 | 280 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 81.7 | 99.9 | 312 |