Wright State Raiders

Women's · Horizon League · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Ohio Christian · Fri 6 Nov, 5 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21

Net rating−14.1Rank 281 of 363 · offence 218, defence 337

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-21 (6 to 18 wins)
Projected conference record: 7-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at Loyola Chicagorank 235	Away	24%	60-70	L 71-73	Right
Fri 6 Nov5 PM ET	vs Ohio Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Michiganrank 3	Away	0%	44-100	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Rylee SagesterG	1	33.0	18.0	1.0	1.0	−3.7	−0.9
Jayden TerryG · transfer from Louisiana Tech	1	33.0	10.0	5.0	3.0	−0.9	+0.7
Olivia BrownG	1	29.0	7.0	3.0	3.0	−3.0	−0.5
Megan CampbellG	1	29.0	3.0	1.0	2.0	−2.6	−0.2
Allie DanielsF	1	27.0	15.0	7.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Maja DilenG	1	17.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−3.6	−0.5
Grace OkihF	1	16.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	−3.5	−0.4
Elaina RagerG	1	16.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	−4.0	−0.6

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.3%rank 40	45.0%rank 240	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.8%rank 57	24.5%rank 69	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.9%rank 269	33.4%rank 124	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.3%rank 79	21.9%rank 316	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.2 expected (−0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.8 points a game (they shot 22.7%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 0-1

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −15.3
Last season's net rating: −16.1
Last season's minutes returning: 42%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.2
Change since preseason: +1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 86.6 (rank 218)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.7 (rank 337)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 196)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.5 (rank 187)

Horizon League by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Green Bay	0-1	0-0	+9.0	96.3	87.3	83
2	Youngstown State	1-0	0-0	−2.0	88.5	90.4	160
3	Cleveland State	1-0	0-0	−3.3	88.8	92.1	181
4	IU Indianapolis	0-1	0-0	−5.8	89.0	94.8	195
5	Purdue Fort Wayne	0-1	0-0	−9.6	88.7	98.2	227
6	Oakland	1-0	0-0	−9.7	88.2	97.8	228
7	Northern Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−11.5	85.5	96.9	244
8	Robert Morris	0-1	0-0	−12.5	83.6	96.1	263
9	Milwaukee	0-1	0-0	−12.8	85.3	98.1	265
10	Detroit Mercy	1-1	0-0	−14.0	83.3	97.3	278
11	Wright State	0-1	0-0	−14.1	86.6	100.7	281
12	Northern Illinois	1-0	0-0	−18.2	81.8	100.0	312