Green Bay Phoenix
Next: vs Loyola Chicago · Sat 7 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 76-55 · Game page
Makes the tournament57%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 27-7
Net rating+9.1Rank 83 of 363 · offence 84, defence 82
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 27-7 (23 to 31 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 18-2
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 78%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 55%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field57%
- Round of 324%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Dukerank 12 | Away | 1% | 52-83 | L 60-76 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov7 PM ET | vs Loyola Chicagorank 236 | Home | 94% | 76-55 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Illinois Staterank 128 | Away | 55% | 70-68 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Loyola ChicagoA win: 57% · a loss: 59%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Illinois StateA win: 58% · a loss: 57%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddy SkorupskiG | 1 | 38.0 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | +4.2 | +4.4 |
| Elisa MeviusG · transfer from Oregon | 1 | 35.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +3.2 | +3.4 |
| Kristina OuimetteG | 1 | 33.0 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +0.3 | +1.5 |
| Jorey BuwaldaF · transfer from Milwaukee | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| McKenna JohnsonG · transfer from Butler | 1 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.8 |
| Meghan SchultzF | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +5.7 | +2.6 |
| Gracie GrzeskF | 1 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 |
| Maren WestinG | 1 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Ady KetterhagenG | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.1 |
| Julianna OuimetteG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| Kallie PepplerG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | 0.0 |
| Kyrin LileF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | 0.0 |
| Lillie JohnsonG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.3%rank 248 | 45.0%rank 248 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.9%rank 54 | 24.3%rank 88 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.5%rank 277 | 33.6%rank 227 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.8%rank 55 | 19.4%rank 86 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −1.5 points a game (they shot 30.4%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +6.3
- Last season's net rating
- +10.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 50%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.3
- Change since preseason
- +2.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 96.2 (rank 84)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 87.1 (rank 82)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.4 (rank 250)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +33.5 (rank 10)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.1 | 96.2 | 87.1 | 83 |
| 2 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 88.3 | 90.2 | 158 |
| 3 | Cleveland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 88.7 | 91.9 | 180 |
| 4 | IU Indianapolis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 88.8 | 94.7 | 192 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 88.5 | 98.1 | 228 |
| 6 | Oakland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 88.0 | 97.6 | 229 |
| 7 | Northern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 85.3 | 96.7 | 246 |
| 8 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 83.3 | 95.8 | 263 |
| 9 | Milwaukee | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 85.1 | 97.9 | 264 |
| 10 | Detroit Mercy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 83.2 | 97.2 | 278 |
| 11 | Wright State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 86.4 | 100.5 | 281 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 81.7 | 99.9 | 312 |